349
FXUS61 KBGM 280537
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1237 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN SULLIVAN
COUNTY AND ONEIDA COUNTY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED
FOR MUCH OF NEPA DUE TO ELEVATION DEPENDENT ICE ACCUMULATION,
AND THEN FOR THE CATSKILLS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY WITH EASTERLY
WINDS BRINGING COLD AIR THAT UNDERCUTS THE WARM AIR ALOFT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DEEP LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOWMELT MONDAY MAY LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED
FLOODING IN SMALLER CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES.
2) STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
3) LONG LIVED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SET UP MONDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS THAT COULD ENHANCE THE
LAKE EFFECT AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIKELY DEEPENS INTO THE MID TO LOW 970 MB
RANGE AND LIFTS A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO THE NORTHEAST. SOME
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AND IN PLACES THAT IT DOES,
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. WITH THE
WARM FRONT LIFTING IN TOMORROW MORNING, CLOUDS MOVE IN AND SO
AREAS THAT GET COLD WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING ABOVE
FREEZING PRIOR TO RAIN MOVING IN. HIGH PRESSURE IN NEW ENGLAND
WILL ALSO LEAD TO COLD, EASTERLY WINDS UNDERCUTTING THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. EAST FACING
SLOPES OF THE CATSKILLS, POCONOS, AND IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY WILL
SEE A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WITH THE COLD AIR
DAMMING. OTHER AREAS OF NEPA, LIKE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
NORTH OF THE WYOMING VALLEY MAY MAINTAIN COLD AIR LONGER WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ABLE TO COOL ADIABATICALLY AND MAINTAIN
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR AN EXTRA COUPLE OF HOURS COMPARED
TO THE VALLEYS. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES,
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND WARMING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL LIKELY
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING PRIOR TO THE RAIN
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE IN ONEIDA COUNTY AS THE
EASTERLY WINDS THERE ALONG WITH THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN AS IT
MOVES NORTH MAY MAKE IT HARDER FOR THE COLD AIR TO SCOUR OUT.
THE BENEFIT IS THAT THE RAIN RATES MAY BE TOO HIGH TO GET MUCH
ACCRETION AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES GET TO NEAR 10C SO THE
RAIN WILL BE FAIRLY WARM AND WITH THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY IT WOULD
RELEASE COOLING TO FREEZING AND THEN THE FREEZING PROCESS MAY
WARM THE SURFACE FASTER THAN MODELED.
WHERE THE WARM FRONT STALLS, A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL FALL.
NBM PROBABILITIES OF OVER AN INCH ARE STILL VERY HIGH FROM THE
SOUTHERN TIER UP INTO WATERTOWN. WHEREVER THIS AXIS OF HEAVIER
RAIN SETS UP COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED HYDRO ISSUES WITH SNOW
MELT AND RAIN FLOWING INTO STREAMS. GIVEN THE DENSITY OF THE
RECENT SNOW, IT SHOULD BE A SLOW MELTING PROCESS FOR THE
SNOWPACK BUT MODELED DEW POINTS DO GET INTO THE 40S WITH SOME
WIND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS THE DEEP LOW PROGRESSES INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
IN SOUTHERN CANADA, A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN
THE DAY MONDAY. THE FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS
TIME, WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING FROM NEAR 50 INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S WITH THE PASSAGE THEN A MORE GRADUAL FALL TO
BELOW FREEZING. 850 MB WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASE TO NEAR
50 KNOTS WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN
BUFKIT SHOW SOME TOP OF BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS APPROACHING 60
KNOTS. WIND GUSTS WERE RAISED CLOSER TO THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE
TO MATCH CLOSER TO THE POTENTIAL MAX WIND GUSTS IN BUFKIT. GIVEN
THAT THE PEAK WINDS IN AND NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
HAVE REMAINED IN THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE, GUSTS AT THE SURFACE
OF OVER 50 KNOTS IS NOT LOOKING LIKELY SO NO WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED. LIGHT WRAP AROUND SNOW COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING WINDS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW, ESPECIALLY IN THE
FARM COUNTRY OF THE FINGER LAKES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THIS STRONG LOW OCCLUDES AND RETROGRADES, BECOMING A STACKED
LOW SOUTH OF THE HUDSON BAY. STRENGTHENING GREENLAND BLOCKING
CAUSES THE 500 MB LOW TO BECOME STATIONARY FOR MOST OF THIS NEXT
WEEK. MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS WESTERLY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND ENSEMBLE MEAN 850 TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW -10C. WITH
A LIKELY MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE SHORTWAVES THAT
ROTATE AROUND THAT CHANGE THE ORIENTATION AND ORGANIZATION OF
THE BANDS AS WELL AS ENHANCING SNOWFALL DOWNSTREAM OF THE LAKES
SO ITS TOUGH TO PIN DOWN ACCUMULATIONS THIS FAR OUT. THIS
PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT TO START
LAST JANUARY SO THE TUG HILL HAS THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SATELLITE PRESENTATION DOES NOT SHOW THE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT
AS SOON AS MODELS HAVE IT SO EXTENDED THE MVFR CIGS AT ALL
TERMINALS, BUT RME FOR AN EXTRA COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING.
BGM CAN EXPECT LIFR RESTRICTIONS FOR A FEW HOURS DUE TO CEILINGS
AND POSSIBLY VISIBILITY TOO, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHETHER OR
NOT FOG DEVELOPS OR IF IT JUST STAYS A LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK AT
A FEW HUNDRED FEET PRIOR TO WINDS PICKING UP LATER THIS MORNING.
RAIN MOVES IN FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. AVP HAS UNCERTAINTY IF
THE RAIN WILL START AS FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN BUT GIVEN THE WINDS
OFF THE POCONOS, IT SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME THE
RAIN ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY. AT RME, THERE IS HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ALL OTHER SITES HAVE HIGHER CERTAINTY THAT TEMPS
WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING PRIOR TO RAIN MOVING IN LATE IN THE
DAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND GUSTY WINDS
AS RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE BACK TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY NY TERMINALS AS LAKE EFFECT BECOMES DOMINANT.
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT THE NY TERMINALS.
WEDNESDAY...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR
MAINLY THE NY TERMINALS, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS MAKING
IT SOUTH TO KAVP.
THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT
BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
MONDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY FOR NYZ009-037-046.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
MONDAY FOR NYZ057-062.
DISCUSSION...AJG
AVIATION...AJG/MPK
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