469
FXUS61 KBGM 281800
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
100 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL NY EXCEPT OUR FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES FROM YATES TO
ONONDAGA. WITH COLD ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER RAINS
EXPECTED, IT LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS COULD GET ICY EVEN INTO
CENTRAL NY SO EXPANDED WEATHER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO THESE
AREAS. ALL THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR
BELOW FREEZING WHEN RAIN MOVES IN.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DEEP LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY INTO
MONDAY WITH FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOWMELT MONDAY MAY LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED
FLOODING IN SMALLER CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES.
2) STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
3) LONG LIVED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SET UP MONDAY EVENING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS THAT COULD ENHANCE THE
LAKE EFFECT AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN INTO THE MID TO LOW 970 MB
RANGE, AND LIFT A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO THE NORTHEAST. WITH
THE WARM FRONT LIFTING THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY, AND RAIN ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE IN NEW ENGLAND WILL LEAD TO COLD, EASTERLY WINDS
UNDERCUTTING THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, WHERE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE CATSKILLS, POCONOS,
AND IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY WILL SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
WITH THE COLD AIR DAMMING. OTHER AREAS OF NEPA, LIKE IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH OF THE WYOMING VALLEY, MAY MAINTAIN
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR AN EXTRA COUPLE OF HOURS COMPARED
TO THE VALLEYS. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES,
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND WARMING DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING, AND KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS
RAIN.
THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE IN ONEIDA COUNTY AS THE
EASTERLY WINDS THERE ALONG WITH THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN AS IT
MOVES NORTH MAY MAKE IT HARDER FOR THE COLD AIR TO SCOUR OUT.
THE BENEFIT IS THAT THE RAIN RATES MAY BE TOO HIGH TO GET MUCH
ACCRETION, AND WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES GETTING TO NEAR 10C,
THE RAIN WILL BE FAIRLY WARM, WHICH WILL MAKE IT EVEN HARDER TO
GET ICE ACCUMULATION.
WHERE THE WARM FRONT STALLS, A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL FALL.
NBM PROBABILITIES OF OVER AN INCH ARE STILL VERY HIGH FROM THE
SOUTHERN TIER UP INTO WATERTOWN. WHEREVER THIS AXIS OF HEAVIER
RAIN SETS UP COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES
WITH THE COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT AND RAIN FLOWING INTO
STREAMS. GIVEN THE DENSITY OF THE RECENT SNOW, IT SHOULD BE A
SLOW MELTING PROCESS FOR THE SNOWPACK, BUT MODELED DEW POINTS
DO GET INTO THE 40S WITH SOME WIND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS THE DEEP LOW PROGRESSES INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
IN SOUTHERN CANADA, A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN
THE DAY MONDAY. 850 MB WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASE TO NEAR
50 KNOTS WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN
BUFKIT SHOW SOME TOP OF BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS APPROACHING 60
KNOTS. WIND GUSTS WERE RAISED CLOSER TO THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE
TO MATCH CLOSER TO THE POTENTIAL MAX WIND GUSTS IN BUFKIT. LIGHT
WRAP AROUND SNOW COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING WINDS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW, ESPECIALLY IN THE FARM COUNTRY OF
THE FINGER LAKES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THIS STRONG LOW OCCLUDES AND RETROGRADES, BECOMING A STACKED
LOW SOUTH OF THE HUDSON BAY. STRENGTHENING GREENLAND BLOCKING
CAUSES THE 500 MB LOW TO BECOME STATIONARY FOR MOST OF THIS NEXT
WEEK. MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS WESTERLY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND ENSEMBLE MEAN 850 TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW -10C. WITH
A LIKELY MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE SHORTWAVES THAT
ROTATE AROUND THAT CHANGE THE ORIENTATION AND ORGANIZATION OF
THE BANDS AS WELL AS ENHANCING SNOWFALL DOWNSTREAM OF THE LAKES
SO ITS TOUGH TO PIN DOWN ACCUMULATIONS THIS FAR OUT. DUE TO THE
FAVORABLE SET UP OF A LONG-DURATION LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT,
WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS BEEN ISSUED,
STARTING MONDAY EVENING. THE CURRENT END TIME IS WEDNESDAY
MORNING, BUT WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR BUT AS PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON, CEILINGS WILL FALL FROM WEST TO EAST.
AFTER A FORECAST UPDATE, MOST TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE
FREEZING RAIN TODAY. WHERE THERE WAS LOWER CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER
THERE WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN OR JUST RAIN, TEMPO GROUPS WERE
ADDED. SYR WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCUMULATION WHILE OTHER
TERMINALS COULD SEE AT LEAST A GLAZE ON SURFACES. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, SO FREEZING RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO JUST RAIN. CEILINGS WILL BE THE MAIN RESTRICTION
GOING FROM VFR TO IFR/LIFR AT MOST TERMINALS. SYR MAY JUST HANG
ONTO FUEL ALT CEILINGS. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE REDUCED AT
TIMES WHEN RAIN/FREEZING RAIN IS FALLING. CONDITIONS THEN
IMPROVE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS RAIN SLOWLY COMES TO AN END
BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z MONDAY.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT NOW BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS. WINDS BEGIN
TO INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. GUSTS WILL INITIALLY BE 15 TO 20 KTS BUT INCREASE TO
25 TO 40 BY MIDDAY MONDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER A FRONT PUSHES THE RAIN OUT MONDAY MORNING.
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO EXPECTED AT ALL CITES. EXPECTED
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 50 KTS UP TO 2000 FT AGL.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
GUSTY WINDS AS RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE BACK TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY NY TERMINALS AS LAKE EFFECT BECOMES
DOMINANT. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT THE NY TERMINALS.
WEDNESDAY...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR
MAINLY THE NY TERMINALS, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS MAKING
IT SOUTH TO KAVP.
THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT
BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY FOR NYZ009-036-037-046.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR NYZ009-018-036-037.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ022>025-
044-045-055>057-062.
DISCUSSION...DJN/KL
AVIATION...BTL
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