097
FXUS61 KBGM 281954
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
254 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL NY EXCEPT OUR FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES FROM YATES TO
ONONDAGA. WITH COLD ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER RAINS
EXPECTED, IT LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS COULD GET ICY EVEN INTO
CENTRAL NY SO EXPANDED WEATHER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO THESE
AREAS. ALL THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR
BELOW FREEZING WHEN RAIN MOVES IN.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DEEP LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY INTO
MONDAY WITH FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOWMELT MONDAY MAY LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED
FLOODING IN SMALLER CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES.
2) STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
3) A PROLONGED LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY NIGHT
INTO NEXT WEEK ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NY. INCREASING WINDS WILL
LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, WITH PERIODS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN INTO THE MID TO LOW 970 MB
RANGE, AND LIFT A STRONG WARM FRONT INTO THE NORTHEAST. WITH
THE WARM FRONT LIFTING THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY, AND RAIN ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE IN NEW ENGLAND WILL LEAD TO COLD, EASTERLY WINDS
UNDERCUTTING THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, WHERE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE CATSKILLS, POCONOS,
AND IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY WILL SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
WITH THE COLD AIR DAMMING. OTHER AREAS OF NEPA, LIKE IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH OF THE WYOMING VALLEY, MAY MAINTAIN
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR AN EXTRA COUPLE OF HOURS COMPARED
TO THE VALLEYS. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES,
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND WARMING DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING, AND KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS
RAIN.
THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE IN ONEIDA COUNTY AS THE
EASTERLY WINDS THERE ALONG WITH THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN AS IT
MOVES NORTH MAY MAKE IT HARDER FOR THE COLD AIR TO SCOUR OUT.
THE BENEFIT IS THAT THE RAIN RATES MAY BE TOO HIGH TO GET MUCH
ACCRETION, AND WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES GETTING TO NEAR 10C,
THE RAIN WILL BE FAIRLY WARM, WHICH WILL MAKE IT EVEN HARDER TO
GET ICE ACCUMULATION.
WHERE THE WARM FRONT STALLS, A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL FALL.
NBM PROBABILITIES OF OVER AN INCH ARE STILL VERY HIGH FROM THE
SOUTHERN TIER UP INTO WATERTOWN. WHEREVER THIS AXIS OF HEAVIER
RAIN SETS UP COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES
WITH THE COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT AND RAIN FLOWING INTO
STREAMS. GIVEN THE DENSITY OF THE RECENT SNOW, IT SHOULD BE A
SLOW MELTING PROCESS FOR THE SNOWPACK, BUT MODELED DEW POINTS
DO GET INTO THE 40S WITH SOME WIND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS THE DEEP LOW PROGRESSES INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
IN SOUTHERN CANADA, A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN
THE DAY MONDAY. 850 MB WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASE TO NEAR
50 KNOTS WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN
BUFKIT SHOW SOME TOP OF BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS APPROACHING 60
KNOTS. WIND GUSTS WERE RAISED CLOSER TO THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE
TO MATCH CLOSER TO THE POTENTIAL MAX WIND GUSTS IN BUFKIT. LIGHT
WRAP AROUND SNOW COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING WINDS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW, ESPECIALLY IN THE FARM COUNTRY OF
THE FINGER LAKES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
WESTERLY FLOW TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO ROTATE. THIS WILL ADVECT INCREASINGLY COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION, WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BETWEEN -10 TO -15
DEGREES C WHILE LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 6
DEGREES C. AS NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND PERSISTS, MULTI-
LAKE CONNECTION IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL
PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, IMPACTING BAND ORIENTATION
AND ORGANIZATION AND ENHANCING SNOWFALL RATES DOWNSTREAM OF THE
LAKES.
MODEL SOUNDING INDICATE FAVORABLE MOISTURE DEPTH THROUGH THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NY. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WITHIN THE PRIMARY LAKE EFFECT BAND ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 7 TO 14 INCHES, WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE
MAIN BAND. STRONG WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS EVENT, INCREASING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FRESH
SNOWFALL WILL EXPERIENCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, LEADING TO
LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND OCCASIONAL WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR
ONONDAGA, MADISON, AND ONEIDA COUNTIES. A LAKE EFFECT WARNING
WAS NOT ISSUES DUE TO THE ADDED IMPACTS OF GUSTY WINDS AND
BLOWING SNOW. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUES SOUTH
OF THE WARNING AREA FOR S. CAYUGA, CORTLAND, CHENANGO, AND
OTSEGO COUNTIES.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR BUT AS PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON, CEILINGS WILL FALL FROM WEST TO EAST.
AFTER A FORECAST UPDATE, MOST TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE
FREEZING RAIN TODAY. WHERE THERE WAS LOWER CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER
THERE WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN OR JUST RAIN, TEMPO GROUPS WERE
ADDED. SYR WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCUMULATION WHILE OTHER
TERMINALS COULD SEE AT LEAST A GLAZE ON SURFACES. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, SO FREEZING RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO JUST RAIN. CEILINGS WILL BE THE MAIN RESTRICTION
GOING FROM VFR TO IFR/LIFR AT MOST TERMINALS. SYR MAY JUST HANG
ONTO FUEL ALT CEILINGS. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE REDUCED AT
TIMES WHEN RAIN/FREEZING RAIN IS FALLING. CONDITIONS THEN
IMPROVE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS RAIN SLOWLY COMES TO AN END
BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z MONDAY.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT NOW BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS. WINDS BEGIN
TO INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. GUSTS WILL INITIALLY BE 15 TO 20 KTS BUT INCREASE TO
25 TO 40 BY MIDDAY MONDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER A FRONT PUSHES THE RAIN OUT MONDAY MORNING.
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO EXPECTED AT ALL CITES. EXPECTED
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 50 KTS UP TO 2000 FT AGL.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
GUSTY WINDS AS RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE BACK TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY NY TERMINALS AS LAKE EFFECT BECOMES
DOMINANT. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT THE NY TERMINALS.
WEDNESDAY...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR
MAINLY THE NY TERMINALS, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS MAKING
IT SOUTH TO KAVP.
THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT
BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ009-036-
037-046.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR NYZ009-018-036-037.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR NYZ017-044>046.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ022>025-
044-045-055>057-062.
DISCUSSION...DJN/ES/KL
AVIATION...BTL
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