823
FXUS61 KBGM 282019
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
319 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR ONONDAGA
CO. AS TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS
AND RAIN IN DEVELOPING SHORTLY.
UPGRADED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IN NORTH CENTRAL NY MONDAY
EVENING TO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
FROM SOUTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY TO OTSEGO COUNTY IN NY FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FOR THE SAME TIMES. ISSUED WIND
ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE AREA FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON TO TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA.
2) STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
3) A PROLONGED LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY NIGHT
INTO NEXT WEEK ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NY. INCREASING WINDS WILL
LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, WITH PERIODS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FREEZING RAIN WAS SPREADING RAPIDLY ACROSS NORTHEAST PA AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NY. TEMPERATURES WERE STILL JUST BELOW FREEZING WITH
DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES LOWER IN THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER AND
SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE SOLIDLY IN THE 20S
EAST OF AN ITH TO TOWANDA PA LINE. STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AT 850 MB
WAS TRANSPORTING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INTO A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION. SOUTH OF NC NY,
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90, QPF WILL BE LIGHTER SO WE EXPECT MORE FREEZING
RAIN TO ACCRETE ON SURFACES. TH EXCEPTION IS ONEIDA COUNTY WHERE
COLDER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE LEADING TO AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH
OF ICE. ROAD TEMPERATURES WERE HOVERING BELOW FREEZING RAIN AS
WELL. SO ANY UNTREATED ROAD SURFACE LIKELY WILL BECOME VERY
SLIPPERY IN THESE AREAS. ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES WHERE
THERE WAS DOWNSLOPING, TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED TO LOW TO MID
30S ALREADY AND WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FREEZING
RAIN THERE EXPECT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN CAYUGA
AND SOUTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTIES. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE
IN EFFECT MOST COUNTIES IN CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
ABOVE FREEZING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND CHANGE ALL
THE FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN. WE MAY BE ABLE TO DROP WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FROM THE SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES AND POINTS
WEST SOONER THAN ADVERTISED. ALL THIS PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO
PLAIN RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 7 AM AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES
ALOFT CLIMB TO AROUND 10C! RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY DRAG DOWN WARMER
AND MOISTER AIR AND WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS THE DEEP LOW PROGRESSES INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
IN SOUTHERN CANADA, A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN
THE DAY MONDAY. 850 MB WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASE TO NEAR
50 KNOTS WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN
BUFKIT SHOW SOME TOP OF BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS APPROACHING 60
KNOTS. WIND GUSTS WERE RAISED CLOSER TO THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE
TO MATCH CLOSER TO THE POTENTIAL MAX WIND GUSTS IN BUFKIT. LIGHT
WRAP AROUND SNOW COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING WINDS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW, ESPECIALLY IN THE FARM COUNTRY OF
THE FINGER LAKES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
WESTERLY FLOW TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO ROTATE. THIS WILL ADVECT INCREASINGLY COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION, WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BETWEEN -10 TO -15
DEGREES C WHILE LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 6
DEGREES C. AS NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND PERSISTS, MULTI-
LAKE CONNECTION IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL
PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, IMPACTING BAND ORIENTATION
AND ORGANIZATION AND ENHANCING SNOWFALL RATES DOWNSTREAM OF THE
LAKES.
MODEL SOUNDING INDICATE FAVORABLE MOISTURE DEPTH THROUGH THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NY. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WITHIN THE PRIMARY LAKE EFFECT BAND ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 7 TO 14 INCHES, WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE
MAIN BAND. STRONG WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS EVENT, INCREASING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FRESH
SNOWFALL WILL EXPERIENCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, LEADING TO
LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND OCCASIONAL WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR
ONONDAGA, MADISON, AND ONEIDA COUNTIES. A LAKE EFFECT WARNING
WAS NOT ISSUES DUE TO THE ADDED IMPACTS OF GUSTY WINDS AND
BLOWING SNOW. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUES SOUTH
OF THE WARNING AREA FOR S. CAYUGA, CORTLAND, CHENANGO, AND
OTSEGO COUNTIES.
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR BUT AS PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON, CEILINGS WILL FALL FROM WEST TO EAST.
AFTER A FORECAST UPDATE, MOST TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE
FREEZING RAIN TODAY. WHERE THERE WAS LOWER CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER
THERE WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN OR JUST RAIN, TEMPO GROUPS WERE
ADDED. SYR WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCUMULATION WHILE OTHER
TERMINALS COULD SEE AT LEAST A GLAZE ON SURFACES. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, SO FREEZING RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO JUST RAIN. CEILINGS WILL BE THE MAIN RESTRICTION
GOING FROM VFR TO IFR/LIFR AT MOST TERMINALS. SYR MAY JUST HANG
ONTO FUEL ALT CEILINGS. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE REDUCED AT
TIMES WHEN RAIN/FREEZING RAIN IS FALLING. CONDITIONS THEN
IMPROVE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS RAIN SLOWLY COMES TO AN END
BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z MONDAY.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT NOW BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS. WINDS BEGIN
TO INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. GUSTS WILL INITIALLY BE 15 TO 20 KTS BUT INCREASE TO
25 TO 40 BY MIDDAY MONDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER A FRONT PUSHES THE RAIN OUT MONDAY MORNING.
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO EXPECTED AT ALL CITES. EXPECTED
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 50 KTS UP TO 2000 FT AGL.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
GUSTY WINDS AS RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE BACK TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY NY TERMINALS AS LAKE EFFECT BECOMES
DOMINANT. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT THE NY TERMINALS.
WEDNESDAY...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR
MAINLY THE NY TERMINALS, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS MAKING
IT SOUTH TO KAVP.
THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT
BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ009-036-
037-046.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR NYZ009-018-036-037.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR NYZ017-044>046.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ018-
022>025-044-045-055>057-062.
DISCUSSION...DJN/ES
AVIATION...BTL
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