183
FXUS61 KBGM 111132
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
632 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED SNOW CHANCES FOR TOMORROW BASED ON HIGH-RES GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A SECOND
STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT WILL KICK OFF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SNOW SQUALLS CAN BE EXPECTED AS
WELL. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
2) PATTERN CHANGE STARTING MID WEEK COULD BRING SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND SNOW FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
AFTERNOON/EVENING SNOW SQUALLS.
THE DUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RECORD RAIN TO
SYRACUSE HAS PUSHED NE OF THE AREA. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
REMAIN OVER CNY, BUT THOSE SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNRISE. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING, BRINGING A WIND
SHIFT TO WNW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE SPEEDS AND GUSTS AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES. A SECOND, STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN
THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
TRANSITING THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER
TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH SUSTAINED 15-25MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40MPH. A
WIND ADVISORY WAS CONSIDERED GIVEN THE NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FRONTS USUALLY GETS WINDS GOING, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE, BOTH
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC WAS JUST NOT SHOWING A HIGH ENOUGH
CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TO DEVELOP. IT IS BORDERLINE AND
A SHORT FUSED ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING, BUT AT
THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ONE.
ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS, SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WEAK
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING BEHIND THE FIRST
COLD FRONT, CLEARING SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND
ALLOWING WEAK INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS
60-90 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING, AND COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES, CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL ALLOW MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO BRING SOME STRONG WINDS
DOWN TO THE SURFACE, WITH ISOLATED 45-50MPH GUSTS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BRING VISIBILITY BELOW
1/2SM AND QUICKLY COVER ROADS WITH SNOW, MAKING TRAVEL VERY
HAZARDOUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND SQUALLS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY MID-EVENING,
WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN FINGER LAKES, MOHAWK VALLEY AND INTO ONEIDA COUNTY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SW WINDS WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT GOING
OFF THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO. FAR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY
COULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. UP TO AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NEPA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER. EXTENDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO TUESDAY SHOULD
BRING 3-6 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY, WITH THE BORDER
WITH LEWIS COUNTY SEEING AMOUNTS ON THE HIGHER END OF THAT
RANGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO START MID WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM
SHOULD DEVELOP TO OUR NW AND TRACK TO THE NE WITH THIS INITIAL
DIGGING OF THE TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOWERS WITH
ELEVATION BASED RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD MOVE OVER THE AREA TUES
NIGHT INTO WED WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.
ON WED NIGHT INTO THURS, A STRONG SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING IN
CANADA IS PROGGED TO RIDE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND DIG INTO THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHERE IT BECOMES A CUTOFF LOW.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO HOW IT DEVELOPS FROM HERE AND IF IT IS
ABLE TO TILT NEGATIVE AND PHASE THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM QUICK ENOUGH TO GENERATE A SURFACE LOW
THAT WOULD BECOME A NOR'EASTER. CURRENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
STARTING TO SHOW A BETTER, MORE CONSENSUS SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS
THE CUT OFF LOW SLIDING EASTWARD, NOT TILTING AND NOT PHASING
THE JET, WHICH WOULD KEEP ANY NOR'EASTER DEVELOPMENT OFF SHORE
AND NOT IMPACT OUR CWA. THIS PATTERN DOES PUSH A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH, BRINGING A RETURN OF
COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. THEN AS SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOP, CONDITIONS WILL FALL INTO MVFR AND FUEL ALT.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A POTENTIAL SNOW SQUALL MOVING THROUGH AVP,
BGM, ELM, AND ITH BETWEEN 17 AND 21Z. IF THIS DOES OCCUR, THEN
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THEN THERE WILL BE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS LATE TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING
WHICH COULD RESULT IN VISIBILITIES LOWER THAN FORECASTED. WHERE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT OVER SYR AND RME, IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE LIKELY. THEN TONIGHT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
IN AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR WITH SNOW
SHOWERS COMING TO AN END BY 12Z MONDAY.
AT SOME TERMINALS, THERE HAVE ALREADY BEEN SOME STRONG GUSTS, SO
WINDS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP FOR THIS MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME STRONGER TODAY AND EVENTUALLY BE MORE NORTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KTS WITH PEAK
GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS. GUIDANCE HAS WINDS QUICKLY BECOMING LIGHTER
YET STILL BREEZY NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR; LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS
(MONDAY) AND RAIN SHOWERS (TUESDAY) AT SYR AND RME.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JTC
AVIATION...BTL
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