816
FXUS61 KBGM 111802
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
102 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED SNOW CHANCES AND INTENSITY BASED ON HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
FOR TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A SECOND
STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT WILL KICK OFF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SNOW SQUALLS CAN BE EXPECTED AS
WELL. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
2) PATTERN CHANGE STARTING MID WEEK COULD BRING SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND SNOW FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
AFTERNOON/EVENING SNOW SQUALLS.
9:30 AM UPDATE...
A BAND OF SNOW SQUALLS HAS BEEN PICKED UP WELL BY THE HRRR THIS
MORNING AND LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEST TO EAST LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS OBSERVATIONS OVER WNY HAVE
GONE TO VERY HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THIS BAND OF SNOW
SQUALLS. GRIDS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF
THE SNOW SQUALLS. A QUICK HALF INCH OF SNOW WITH LINGERING BLACK
ICE MAY MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT LATER TODAY.
PREVIOUS...
THE DUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RECORD RAIN TO
SYRACUSE HAS PUSHED NE OF THE AREA. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
REMAIN OVER CNY, BUT THOSE SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNRISE. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING, BRINGING A WIND
SHIFT TO WNW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE SPEEDS AND GUSTS AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES. A SECOND, STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN
THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
TRANSITING THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER
TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH SUSTAINED 15-25MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40MPH. A
WIND ADVISORY WAS CONSIDERED GIVEN THE NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FRONTS USUALLY GETS WINDS GOING, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE, BOTH
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC WAS JUST NOT SHOWING A HIGH ENOUGH
CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TO DEVELOP. IT IS BORDERLINE AND
A SHORT FUSED ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING, BUT AT
THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ONE.
ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS, SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WEAK
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING BEHIND THE FIRST
COLD FRONT, CLEARING SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND
ALLOWING WEAK INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS
60-90 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING, AND COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES, CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL ALLOW MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO BRING SOME STRONG WINDS
DOWN TO THE SURFACE, WITH ISOLATED 45-50MPH GUSTS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BRING VISIBILITY BELOW
1/2SM AND QUICKLY COVER ROADS WITH SNOW, MAKING TRAVEL VERY
HAZARDOUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND SQUALLS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY MID-EVENING,
WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN FINGER LAKES, MOHAWK VALLEY AND INTO ONEIDA COUNTY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SW WINDS WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT GOING
OFF THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO. FAR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY
COULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. UP TO AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NEPA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER. EXTENDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO TUESDAY SHOULD
BRING 3-6 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY, WITH THE BORDER
WITH LEWIS COUNTY SEEING AMOUNTS ON THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO START MID WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM
SHOULD DEVELOP TO OUR NW AND TRACK TO THE NE WITH THIS INITIAL
DIGGING OF THE TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOWERS WITH
ELEVATION BASED RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD MOVE OVER THE AREA TUES
NIGHT INTO WED WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.
ON WED NIGHT INTO THURS, A STRONG SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING IN
CANADA IS PROGGED TO RIDE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND DIG INTO THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHERE IT BECOMES A CUTOFF LOW.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO HOW IT DEVELOPS FROM HERE AND IF IT IS
ABLE TO TILT NEGATIVE AND PHASE THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM QUICK ENOUGH TO GENERATE A SURFACE LOW
THAT WOULD BECOME A NOR'EASTER. CURRENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
STARTING TO SHOW A BETTER, MORE CONSENSUS SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS
THE CUT OFF LOW SLIDING EASTWARD, NOT TILTING AND NOT PHASING
THE JET, WHICH WOULD KEEP ANY NOR'EASTER DEVELOPMENT OFF SHORE
AND NOT IMPACT OUR CWA. THIS PATTERN DOES PUSH A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH, BRINGING A RETURN OF
COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AN INITIAL LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LINE LOOKS TO BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY AS IT MOVES OVER THE TERMINALS;
REACH ELM BY 18Z, ITH AND SYR BY 1830Z, BGM BY 19-20Z AND AVP
BETWEEN 19-21Z. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALL
WILL PERIODICALLY IMPACT SYR AND RME THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING;
THESE CAN BRING TEMPO VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/2SM OR LESS WITH
THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. AFTER A BRIEF 2 HOUR LULL IN THE SNOW
SHOWERS AFTER THE INITIAL LINE...MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT ITH AND BGM, AND THESE COULD OCCASIONALLY BE
MODERATE, WITH IFR VISIBILITIES UNTIL TAPERING OFF AFTER AROUND
02Z THIS EVENING. FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, WITH MINOR
BLOWING SNOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT BEFORE ENDING PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY MORNING
AROUND THE AREA. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT, MVFR SNOW SHOWERS LOOK
TO REDEVELOP UP NORTH, POSSIBLY IMPACTING SYR AND/OR TOWARD THE
END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING BETWEEN 10-20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-35 KTS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. THE WESTERLY WINDS THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY, BETWEEN 8-15 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: MAINLY VFR; CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AT SYR AND RME.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR; EXCEPT A CHANCE FOR LINGERING MVFR CIGS
AT RME AND SYR.
WEDNESDAY....RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS, CHANGING
TO SNOW OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THE
AREA.
FRIDAY....A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE (LOW CHANCE),
OTHERWISE VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JTC/MWG
AVIATION...BTL/MJM
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