433
FXUS61 KBGM 111826
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
126 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. SOME INCREASE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY
WEAK LAKE EFFECT IN THE TYPICALLY FAVORED AREAS.
2) INDICATIONS TRENDING TOWARD THE FORMATION OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ALONG A FRONT BRINGING A ROUND OF SNOW THURSDAY. STILL
QUITE A BIT UNCERTAINITY 4-5 DAYS OUT.
3) ANOTHER POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SQUALLS CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES SHOULD
DROP BRIEFLY WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
ABOVE FREEZING AHEAD OF THE BAND BUT MAY FALL JUST BELOW
FREEZING AS IT MOVES THROUGH. MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS HAVE ONLY
GOTTEN WET ROADS IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO AS A RESULT. ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS AFTER SUNSET THOUGH MAY SLICKEN SURFACES A BIT. A
LIGHT LAKE RETURN IS STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY OVER THE
TYPICALLY FAVORED AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. AN ODD
SETUP WITH ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL ENERGY COMING AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF A TROUGH TO FORM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE
FRONT. THE GFS/GEFS ALONG WITH THE MOST RECENT 12Z ECMWF DEVELOP
AN AREA OF ANTIFRONTAL SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. NUDGED
THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION. HOWEVER, SEVERAL DIFFERENT
COMPONENTS HAVE TO COME TOGETHER NEAR OUR REGION SO
UNCERTAINITY IS STILL HIGH 4-5 DAYS OUT. IF A COASTAL LOW CAN
FORM, WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. THE GFS/GEFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FORMING A
COASTAL LOW WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW. HOWEVER, MOST MODELING
IS JUST INDICATING SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS TIME GIVEN A PROGRESSIVE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES MAY END UP COLDER THAN FORECASTED FROM THE
NBM LATER IN THE WEEK AS MODELED 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FROM
-10 TO -20C. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IF WE GET ANY CLEAR
NIGHTS WITH SNOW COVER.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AN INITIAL LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LINE LOOKS TO BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY AS IT MOVES OVER THE TERMINALS;
REACH ELM BY 18Z, ITH AND SYR BY 1830Z, BGM BY 19-20Z AND AVP
BETWEEN 19-21Z. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALL
WILL PERIODICALLY IMPACT SYR AND RME THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING;
THESE CAN BRING TEMPO VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/2SM OR LESS WITH
THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. AFTER A BRIEF 2 HOUR LULL IN THE SNOW
SHOWERS AFTER THE INITIAL LINE...MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT ITH AND BGM, AND THESE COULD OCCASIONALLY BE
MODERATE, WITH IFR VISIBILITIES UNTIL TAPERING OFF AFTER AROUND
02Z THIS EVENING. FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, WITH MINOR
BLOWING SNOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT BEFORE ENDING PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY MORNING
AROUND THE AREA. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT, MVFR SNOW SHOWERS LOOK
TO REDEVELOP UP NORTH, POSSIBLY IMPACTING SYR AND/OR TOWARD THE
END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING BETWEEN 10-20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-35 KTS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. THE WESTERLY WINDS THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY, BETWEEN 8-15 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: MAINLY VFR; CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AT SYR AND RME.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR; EXCEPT A CHANCE FOR LINGERING MVFR CIGS
AT RME AND SYR.
WEDNESDAY....RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS, CHANGING
TO SNOW OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THE
AREA.
FRIDAY....A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE (LOW CHANCE),
OTHERWISE VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...BTL/MJM
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