370
FXUS61 KBGM 120546
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1246 AM EST MON JAN 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. SOME INCREASE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY
WEAK LAKE EFFECT IN THE TYPICALLY FAVORED AREAS.
2) INDICATIONS TRENDING TOWARD THE FORMATION OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ALONG A FRONT BRINGING A ROUND OF SNOW THURSDAY. STILL
QUITE A BIT UNCERTAINITY 4-5 DAYS OUT.
3) ANOTHER POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SQUALLS CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES SHOULD
DROP BRIEFLY WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
ABOVE FREEZING AHEAD OF THE BAND BUT MAY FALL JUST BELOW
FREEZING AS IT MOVES THROUGH. MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS HAVE ONLY
GOTTEN WET ROADS IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO AS A RESULT. ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS AFTER SUNSET THOUGH MAY SLICKEN SURFACES A BIT. A
LIGHT LAKE RETURN IS STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY OVER THE
TYPICALLY FAVORED AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. AN ODD
SETUP WITH ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL ENERGY COMING AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF A TROUGH TO FORM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE
FRONT. THE GFS/GEFS ALONG WITH THE MOST RECENT 12Z ECMWF DEVELOP
AN AREA OF ANTIFRONTAL SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. NUDGED
THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION. HOWEVER, SEVERAL DIFFERENT
COMPONENTS HAVE TO COME TOGETHER NEAR OUR REGION SO
UNCERTAINITY IS STILL HIGH 4-5 DAYS OUT. IF A COASTAL LOW CAN
FORM, WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. THE GFS/GEFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FORMING A
COASTAL LOW WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW. HOWEVER, MOST MODELING
IS JUST INDICATING SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS TIME GIVEN A PROGRESSIVE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES MAY END UP COLDER THAN FORECASTED FROM THE
NBM LATER IN THE WEEK AS MODELED 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FROM
-10 TO -20C. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IF WE GET ANY CLEAR
NIGHTS WITH SNOW COVER.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND ARE NOW ISOLATED TO SYR AND
RME. RESTRICTIONS AS MOST TERMINALS ARE MVFR THOUGH ELM AND AVP
ARE CURRENTLY VFR. BOTH ITH AND BGM ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR
BY 12Z WHILE RESTRICTIONS LINGER AT SYR AND RME. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY BUT MAY DIP SOUTH
AT TIMES AT SYR AND RME. EVEN IF NO SNOW IS OBSERVED, MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRESENT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS
TAF PERIOD AT THOSE TWO TERMINALS.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CURRENTLY ARE STILL QUITE GUSTY EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS THEN BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 12Z BUT WILL
REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH LATE TODAY. THEN
THIS EVENING, WINDS BECOME MUCH CALMER WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF
5 TO 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR; CEILING RESTRICTIONS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES REGION.
WEDNESDAY....RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS, CHANGING
TO SNOW OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THE
AREA.
FRIDAY....A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE (LOW CHANCE),
OTHERWISE VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...AJG/BTL
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