638
FXUS61 KBGM 121718
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1218 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED COVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY. ALSO ADJUSTED QPF
FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS SAID REGION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO TUESDAY.
2)A PATTERN CHANGE ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN US WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
3) ANOTHER POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT AND COLD BLAST THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
NW FLOW FROM THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ONONDAGA, MADISON, CORTLAND, OTSEGO
AND ONEIDA COUNTIES INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES TO MORE WSW AS A RIDGE FROM THE
SOUTHERN US BUILDS NORTH AND A WEAK TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE WITH IT THAT
WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE LAKES, KICKING OFF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY THIS MORNING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
-9C 850MB TEMPS HELPING TO DRIVE THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING, AND COMBINED WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES WILL END THE
SHOWERS BEFORE DAYBREAK. QPF WITH THESE SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE
LIGHT AND NO WINTER HEADLINES ARE NEEDED. THE SHOWERS WILL BE
MAINLY FOCUSED NORTH OF OUR CWA, BUT WOBBLES IN THE SSW FLOW
WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO MAKE IT INTO ONONDAGA AND MADISON
COUNTIES. LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED HERE.
FURTHER NORTH INTO ONEIDA COUNTY WILL SEE 1-4 INCHES, WITH THE
CHANCES FOR THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE RIGHT ALONG THE BORDER
WITH LEWIS COUNTY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
QUITE THE INTERESTING SET UP IS BEING MODELED STARTING WEDNESDAY
AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.
THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY AREAS. A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER OHIO AND
GENERATE A MID LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT. YESTERDAY
IT WAS FARTHER SOUTH IN THE VA AREA, BUT THE LATEST RUNS PUT IT
OVER PA. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ENE AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES TO THE SE. THE UPPER TROUGH DRIVING ALL OF THIS STILL
LOOKS TO BE POSITIVELY TILTED AND THE PHASING OF THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE
TROUGH IS EAST OF OUR AREA. THIS DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE
THAT DOES NOT IMPACT OUR AREA. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE MIDLEVEL AND SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT NEAR
OUR AREA. WE SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR ON WED WITH MOSTLY
RAIN, CHANGING TO SNOW ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NE OF US AND
PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS QUITE THE
SPREAD ON POSSIBLE OUTCOMES, RANGING FROM ALMOST NOTHING TO A
MAJOR SNOW STORM. IF THE UPPER TROUGH CAN TILL NEGATIVE FASTER
AND THE JET STREAM CAN PHASE QUICKER, THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER
PA AND MOVES INTO OUR AREA COULD BE STRONGER AND TAP INTO SOME
COLDER AIR QUICKER, GIVING US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS NOT REALLY SHOWN A
STRONG SIGNAL FOR A BIG SNOW STORM, BUT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE LOW ALONG THE FRONT NEAR OUR AREA, IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE HOW IT EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL CYCLES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK, A
STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN WITH
MAJOR MODELS DEVELOPING IT DIFFERENTLY. THEY ALL BRING MUCH
COLDER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMP ANOMALIES -10 TO -15 FROM
NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS THIS TAF
PERIOD. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR OR EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. RME IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE IMPACTS FROM
ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LOWER CHANCE AT SYR. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END AFTER 06Z THOUGH LOW CEILINGS COULD
LINGER UNTIL AT LEAST 12Z TUESDAY. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LAKE CLOUDS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO ITH AND BGM WITH MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR; CEILING RESTRICTIONS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES REGION.
WEDNESDAY....RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS, CHANGING
TO SNOW OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THE
AREA.
FRIDAY....A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE (LOW CHANCE),
OTHERWISE VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JTC
AVIATION...BTL/MPK
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