045
FXUS61 KBGM 122331
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
631 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES NOTED WITH A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF LIGHT
SNOW EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY.
2)A PATTERN CHANGE ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN US WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW AND COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.
3) ANOTHER POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW EVENT THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS NORTHERN NY THIS EVENING AND WILL
ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE I90 CORRIDOR.
AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES, WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND WILL END THE SHOWERS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH POSSIBLY 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY.
FURTHER SOUTH, A DUSTING TO POSSIBLY A HALF INCH OF SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS THRUWAY, BUT NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE ONCE DECENT LOOKING SNOW MAKER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY IS NOW LOOKING LIKE A DUD. ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AND
WILL OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AS SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM HAS WEEKEND
CONSIDERABLY FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUN AND NOW IT JUST SLIDES
THROUGH THE REGION AS AN OPEN WAVE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE LOOKING
SUB ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE,
BUT NOTHING THE AREA CAN'T HANDLE FOR MID JANUARY. WE SHOULD BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY RAIN, CHANGING TO
SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
BEHIND THE FRONT, SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS COULD DEVELOP ON
THURSDAY AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL
FOR LAKE SNOW ACROSS ONONDAGA, MADISON AND ONEIDA COUNTY, BUT
STILL TOO EARLY ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS AND
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK, A
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN WITH MAJOR
MODELS DEVELOPING IT DIFFERENTLY. THEY ALL BRING COLDER AIR INTO
THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE EURO IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS COLDER AIR
NEXT WEEK, BRINGING TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. HOWEVER, THE GFS KEEPS THE COLDEST AIR LOCKED TO OUR
NORTH WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO VERY MIXED AND UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME. BEING THIS IS STILL A WEEK OUT, WE'LL JUST HAVE
TO WAIT TO SEE HOW THE PATTERN UNFOLDS IN THE COMING DAYS AND
KEEP AN EYE ON IT.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SYR AND
RME MAY SEE SOME SNOW TONIGHT AROUND 6Z WITH A WEAK FRONT. SNOW
SHOWERS IN CANADA THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN DROPPING VIS DOWN TO
IFR SO OF THESE HOLD TOGETHER, SYR AND RME MAY NEED TO BE
AMENDED TO HAVE LOWER VIS.
TOMORROW, A WARM FRONT LIFTS IN LATE IN THE DAY LEADING TO SOME
LLWS DEVELOPING.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TOWARDS THE MORNING
HOURS.
WEDNESDAY....RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH RAIN SHOWERS, CHANGING TO
SNOW OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND THE AREA.
FRIDAY....HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD IN, INCREASING CHANCES
OF VFR.
SATURDAY...POTENTIAL CLIPPER SYSTEM, LOW CONFIDENCE IN
RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JTC/MPK
AVIATION...AJG
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