147
FXUS61 KBGM 130549
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1249 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES NOTED WITH A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF LIGHT
SNOW EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY.
2)A PATTERN CHANGE ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN US WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW AND COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.
3) ANOTHER POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW EVENT THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS NORTHERN NY THIS EVENING AND WILL
ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE I90 CORRIDOR.
AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES, WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND WILL END THE SHOWERS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH POSSIBLY 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY.
FURTHER SOUTH, A DUSTING TO POSSIBLY A HALF INCH OF SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS THRUWAY, BUT NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE ONCE DECENT LOOKING SNOW MAKER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY IS NOW LOOKING LIKE A DUD. ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AND
WILL OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AS SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM HAS WEEKEND
CONSIDERABLY FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUN AND NOW IT JUST SLIDES
THROUGH THE REGION AS AN OPEN WAVE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE LOOKING
SUB ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE,
BUT NOTHING THE AREA CAN'T HANDLE FOR MID JANUARY. WE SHOULD BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY RAIN, CHANGING TO
SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
BEHIND THE FRONT, SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS COULD DEVELOP ON
THURSDAY AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL
FOR LAKE SNOW ACROSS ONONDAGA, MADISON AND ONEIDA COUNTY, BUT
STILL TOO EARLY ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS AND
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK, A
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN WITH MAJOR
MODELS DEVELOPING IT DIFFERENTLY. THEY ALL BRING COLDER AIR INTO
THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE EURO IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS COLDER AIR
NEXT WEEK, BRINGING TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. HOWEVER, THE GFS KEEPS THE COLDEST AIR LOCKED TO OUR
NORTH WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO VERY MIXED AND UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME. BEING THIS IS STILL A WEEK OUT, WE'LL JUST HAVE
TO WAIT TO SEE HOW THE PATTERN UNFOLDS IN THE COMING DAYS AND
KEEP AN EYE ON IT.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
(AT LEAST THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY). THERE WILL BE A FEW HOUR
WINDOW VERY EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE KRME MAY SEE BRIEF IFR
VISBYS (AND MVFR CEILINGS) FROM LIGHT SNOW MOVING THROUGH. KSYR
WILL ALSO HAVE A BRIEF WINDOW BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z TO SEE MVFR
CEILINGS. ANY RESTRICTIONS AT THOSE TWO TERMINALS SHOULD END
BEFORE DAWN.
LLWS OF AROUND 40-45KTS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTHERLY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY....RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH RAIN SHOWERS, CHANGING TO
SNOW OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR, ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
AT KRME AND KSYR WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JTC/MPK
AVIATION...BJG
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