692
FXUS61 KBGM 131142
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
642 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO NOTE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RIDGING ON TUESDAY IS FOLLOWED BY A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THAT WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW AS WELL AS
COLDER TEMPERATURES.
2) ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND WITH CONDITIONS
TRENDING COLDER INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL ADVECT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WHICH THEN ALLOWS
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S. THE RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES EAST AND
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG OVER THE EASTERN US TONIGHT.
WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH WILL KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL NY
TONIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING INTO THE 30S, PRECIPITATION
WILL BE BOTH RAIN AND SNOW. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF ONEIDA COUNTY WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO FREEZING.
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AGAIN SO
PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY START OUT AS RAIN. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT,
SO RAIN WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SNOW, THOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF A RAIN & SNOW MIX. FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THIS SYSTEM, FLOW
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE WAS NOT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN GUIDANCE WITH QPF AMOUNTS AS
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN OPEN WAVE OR A WEAK LOW AT
BEST. IN GENERAL, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE
FROM THE TWIN TIERS AND AREAS NORTHWARD WHERE AS THE REST OF NEPA
AND CATSKILLS REGION WILL SEE AN INCH OR LESS. WITH THE ADDITION OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW, ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA COUNTIES COULD BE PUSHED INTO
ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA, BUT THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE
THE LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPS WHICH WILL PARTIALLY BE DEPENDENT ON HOW
QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BE QUICK TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY, CUTTING
OFF ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW, BUT ANOTHER TROUGH IS DIGGING
BEHIND IT. AS IT SWINGS THROUGH, THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND. A CLIPPER SYSTEM COMES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ON SATURDAY BUT STALLS OUT BEFORE PASSING THROUGH. AS THE TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND,
THIS WEAK SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH WHILE THE MORE IMPRESSIVE BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT AT SEA. STILL, THIS WILL BE THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE REGION, THOUGH BEING THIS FAR
OUT, IT TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
COLDER THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE WILL
SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH THE BROAD TROUGH
NOT GOING ANYWHERE, THERE WILL LIKELY BE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO
START THE WEEK WHETHER IT IS DUE TO WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING
THROUGH OR LAKE ENHANCEMENT.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A MVFR DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL NY WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT,
SOME LINGERING MVFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING AT KRME, KSYR, KITH, AND KBGM, WITH KRME AND KSYR LIKELY
BEING THE LAST TWO TERMINALS TO RETURN TO VFR (WILL BE BY
15/16Z). OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS (AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY).
LLWS OF AROUND 40-45KTS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS
THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER AROUND 06Z OR SO.
OTHERWISE, SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20KTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY....RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH RAIN SHOWERS, CHANGING TO
SNOW OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR, ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
AT KRME AND KSYR WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BTL/MPK
AVIATION...BJG
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