579
FXUS61 KBGM 140002
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
702 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOW TOTALS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY WITH THIS UPDATE. CONTINUED
TRENDS MAY WARRANT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN FUTURE FORECAST
PACKAGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THAT
WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW AS WELL AS COLDER TEMPERATURES.
2) ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND WITH CONDITIONS
TRENDING COLDER INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HOLDS TODAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WARM AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S THIS AFTERNOON.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT KICKING OFF SOME
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS TEMPERATURES RANGE JUST ABOVE OR BELOW
FREEZING. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY
IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF ONEIDA COUNTY WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSER TO FREEZING.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE
MOVING EAST AND INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES IN. INITIALLY SHOWERS WILL START OFF AS RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING
SHOWERS TO TRANSITION TO SNOW AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
NOTE THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN & SNOW MIX OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES FALL. FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THIS SYSTEM, FLOW WILL
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER THIS UPDATE, HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. GENERALLY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGE 1 TO 4 INCHES IN
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. HIGHER
TOTALS RANGE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NY WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICK AFTER. OTHERWISE COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -20 DEGREES C.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY ALLOWING LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES BACK INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH. A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDES
BEHIND THE RIDGE AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH, BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW FEATURE SWINGS NORTH OF THE
REGION SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE WILL SEE
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM. REGION THEN REMAINS
UNDER THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LLWS HAS DEVELOPED THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS WITH SEVERAL
PIREPS WITH THE LLWS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS HAVE
STARTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE A LITTLE EARLIER THAN
ANTICIPATED SO AS THE WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TOWARDS 6Z,
THE LLWS WILL TAPER OFF BUT STILL BE CLOSE TO THE 30 KNOT
THRESHOLD.
TOMORROW, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START AS VFR BUT CIGS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY WITH MVFR CIGS MOVING IN AFTER
15Z TO 17Z FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. RAIN DEVELOPS AS WELL AFTER 18Z.
RAINFALL INTENSITY COULD BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR IFR VIS AND LIKELY
IFR CIGS AT SOME POINT AFTER 18Z. TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO
PROB30S WERE ADDED IN AS AN INITIAL ESTIMATION OF TIMING. SYR
AND RME HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH PTYPE AS IT COULD BE COLD
ENOUGH TOWARDS 0Z TO HAVE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT....IFR RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH RAIN SHOWERS,
CHANGING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR, ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
AT KRME AND KSYR WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ES
AVIATION...AJG
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