667
FXUS61 KBGM 141750 AAA
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1250 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE ADJUSTED TO BETTER MATCH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED FOR
MOST OF CENTRAL NY AS WELL AS BRADFORD AND SUSQUEHANNA COUNTIES IN
PA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN TODAY TRANSITIONS TO SNOW TONIGHT AS A DEEP TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH LEADING TO ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION.
2) COLD AND SNOWY PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE EASTERN US TODAY AND AS IT
DOES, A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ON ITS LEADING EDGE. WHILE
CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY START OUT DRY, SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION PRIOR TO MIDDAY. RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. TONIGHT, THE LOW
WILL PASS THROUGH AND BRING A COLD FRONT WITH IT LEADING TO RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO JUST SNOW. AS IT DOES, WET SURFACES MAY BECOME ICY
AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH AND FALL BELOW FREEZING. TIMING OF THIS
RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS DYNAMIC COOLING
COULD LEAD TO A QUICKER TRANSITION TO SNOW THAN FORECASTED. SNOW
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT BUT 850MB FGEN BANDING INDICATES THAT
LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT EXACTLY WHERE REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. THE MOST UNCERTAINTY WOULD BE A BROAD AREA EXTENDING FROM
PA'S NORTHERN TIER INTO CENTRAL NY. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END THURSDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES INTO NEW
ENGLAND.
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THIS SYSTEM, LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPS
UNDER WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL FOR THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGIONS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
MODELS REMAIN SLOWER AND WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR TONIGHT, NBM
GUIDANCE SEEMED FAR TOO LOW FOR QPF AS THE INITIAL RESULTANT
SNOWFALL FORECAST WAS CUT IN HALF FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. USING A
BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, NBM, AND CONSALL GUIDANCE, QPF WAS
BUMPED UP AND SLRS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED. THIS INCREASED SNOWFALL
SIGNIFICANTLY AND IS CLOSER TO WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD. THIS
FORECAST IS IN RELATIVELY CLOSE AGREEMENT TO WHAT WPC IS FORECASTING
AS WELL. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD
POTENTIALLY OVERPERFORM, AT LEAST LOCALLY. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED,
THERE COULD BE A QUICKER TRANSITION TO SNOW AND LOCALIZED BANDING
ALL COULD LEAD TO HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED.
AS OF NOW, THIS FORECAST HAS TOTALS THAT FALL WITHIN ADVISORY
CRITERIA. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NY AND BRADFORD AND
SUSQUEHANNA COUNTIES IN PA. FOR THE COUNTIES IMPACTED BY THE
FOLLOWING LAKE EFFECT SNOW, THE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TODAY BUT FALL BELOW FREEZING
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT. TO END THE WORK WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 20S BEFORE FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
UNDER A BROAD TROUGH, THE COLD AND SNOWY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE
EASTERN US THIS WEEKEND. WITH IT, A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED, LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A MORE ORGANIZED
SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
HAVE ANY IMPACT FOR OUR REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING A SURGE
OF COLDER AIR LEADING TO TEMPERATURES GOING FROM THE 30S ON SATURDAY
TO 20S ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A MORE BROAD SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW COLD THIS SURGE WILL BE THOUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING EVEN COLDER AND
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED. ANY SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF LAKE EFFECT AND MAINLY LIMITED TO CENTRAL NY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON AS RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. MVFR TO FUEL ALT
CEILINGS ARE INITIALLY EXPECTED BEFORE IFR CONDITIONS SETTLE IN
BY THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW AND
EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO SNOW OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD IFR OR WORSE VISBYS AND CEILINGS. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED VERY LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR, ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT KRME AND KSYR WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR PAZ038-039.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-017-018-036-037.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR NYZ015-016-022>025-044-045-055-056.
DISCUSSION...BTL/ES
AVIATION...BJG/ES
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