330
FXUS61 KBGM 150548
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1248 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE DECREASED FOR NORTHEASTERN PA AND SOUTHERN
TIER NY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ONEIDA-ONONDAGA-MADISON-
CAYUGA WERE EXTENDED BY 6 HOURS, ENDING NOW AT 1PM EST FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN TODAY TRANSITIONS TO SNOW TONIGHT AS A DEEP TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH LEADING TO ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION.
2) COLD AND SNOWY PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP
TO PUSH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO OUR AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID- TO UPPER-40S AREA-WIDE. AS THE MAIN
CENTER LOW PASSES OVERHEAD TONIGHT, COLDER AIR PUSHES IN, AND
RAIN WILL TRANSITION INTO SNOWFALL. AS IT DOES, WET SURFACES
MAY BECOME ICY AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH AND FALL BELOW FREEZING.
UNCERTAINTY STILL LIES FOR NE PA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER, AS
TRENDS KEEP SLOWING THE INTRODUCTION OF COLDER AIR, AS WELL AS
QPF TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER. WITH THE SLOWER INTRODUCTION OF
COLDER AIR, THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW MAY BE SLOWER, BUT
IT WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR WEST-TO- EAST AFTER 2AM EST.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON TOMORROW FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NY AND BRADFORD AND
SUSQUEHANNA COUNTIES IN PA. FOR THE COUNTIES IMPACTED BY THE
FOLLOWING LAKE EFFECT SNOW, THE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THIS SYSTEM, LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPS
UNDER WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL FOR THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING AN END TO THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
UNDER A BROAD TROUGH, THE COLD AND SNOWY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE
EASTERN US THIS WEEKEND, WITH A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PASS
NORTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED,
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY,
BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY IMPACT FOR OUR REGION. THIS
TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING A SURGE OF COLDER AIR LEADING TO
TEMPERATURES GOING FROM THE 30S ON SATURDAY TO 20S ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
MORE BROAD SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW COLD THIS SURGE WILL BE THOUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO
BE BLUSTERY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING EVEN COLDER AND GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED. ANY SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
LAKE EFFECT AND MAINLY LIMITED TO CENTRAL NY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR EARLY THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH RAIN AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. AS
RAIN STARTS TO CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER 09Z OR SO ACROSS THE CENTRAL
NY TERMINALS, MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED BY THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON, BUT MVFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY
LINGER AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS (KAVP LIKELY RETURNS TO VFR
BY LATE THIS MORNING). KSYR MAY SEE IFR VISBYS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST IN
THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR, ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT KRME AND KSYR WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-017-
018-036-037.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ015-016-022-023-025-044.
DISCUSSION...KL
AVIATION...BJG
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