621
FXUS61 KBGM 150614
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
114 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE DECREASED FOR MOST OF THE REGION. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CANCELLED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TWIN TIERS AND
THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS. A FEW ICY
SPOTS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STILL EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL
LAKE EFFECT INTO FRIDAY.
2) A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS. COASTAL LOW TRENDING WESTWARD SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND LAKE EFFECT
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR POSSIBLE
AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN TOO HIGH FOR ANY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
FOR MOST AREAS SO FAR EARLY THIS MORNING. SO WE ARE RELYING ON
DYNAMICAL COOLING WHICH IS A SLOW PROCESS GIVEN THE LIGHT NATURE
OF THE RAIN. ONCE THE MAIN LOW PASSES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20'S TODAY RESULTING IN RAIN
CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE REGION.A
FEW SLICK SPOTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND IN THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT
AREAS STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GET A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. SO,
THE ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THOSE AREAS. TYPICAL WESTERLY
FLOW SHOULD KEEP SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW GOING FROM THE NY
THRUWAY CORRIDOR NORTHWARD INTO FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A POTENT MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING A ROUND
OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LIGHT SUB-ADVISORY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WITH IT.
HOWEVER, OF MORE INTEREST IS MODEL TRENDS OF INCREASING MID-
LEVEL HEIGHTS ALONG THE EAST COAST AND DIGGING A STRONGER TROUGH
INTO THE SOUTH. THIS RESULTS IN THE SHIFT OF THE TRACK OF A
NORTHWARD MOVING SURFACE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW FROM THIS, MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF I-81. IT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING TO SEE THIS FEATURE CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST ON THE
MODELING. HOWEVER, THE WESTWARD CORRECTION WILL BE LIMITED BY
ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH.
SEVERAL DIFFERENT BUT MAINLY WEAK SYSTEMS LOOK TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION NEXT WEEK WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE AS WELL.
DETAILS ARE STILL FLIP-FLOPING A BIT. HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR APPEARS TO BE INCREASING
FOR NEXT WEEK WITH SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE. WOULD THINK
OUR NBM GUIDANCE TRENDS COLDER AS THIS TIMEFRAME APPROACHES.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR EARLY THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH RAIN AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. AS
RAIN STARTS TO CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER 09Z OR SO ACROSS THE CENTRAL
NY TERMINALS, MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED BY THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON, BUT MVFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY
LINGER AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS (KAVP LIKELY RETURNS TO VFR
BY LATE THIS MORNING). KSYR MAY SEE IFR VISBYS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST IN
THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR, ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT KRME AND KSYR WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-017-
018-036-037.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ015-016-022-023-025-044.
DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...BJG
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