512
FXUS61 KBGM 151800
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
100 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE DECREASED FOR MOST OF THE REGION. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CANCELLED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TWIN TIERS AND
THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS. A FEW ICY
SPOTS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STILL EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL
LAKE EFFECT INTO FRIDAY.
2) A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS. COASTAL LOW TRENDING WESTWARD SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND LAKE EFFECT
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR POSSIBLE
AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN TOO HIGH FOR ANY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
FOR MOST AREAS SO FAR EARLY THIS MORNING. SO WE ARE RELYING ON
DYNAMICAL COOLING WHICH IS A SLOW PROCESS GIVEN THE LIGHT NATURE
OF THE RAIN. ONCE THE MAIN LOW PASSES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20'S TODAY RESULTING IN RAIN
CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE REGION.A
FEW SLICK SPOTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND IN THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT
AREAS STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GET A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. SO,
THE ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THOSE AREAS. TYPICAL WESTERLY
FLOW SHOULD KEEP SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW GOING FROM THE NY
THRUWAY CORRIDOR NORTHWARD INTO FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A POTENT MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING A ROUND
OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LIGHT SUB-ADVISORY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WITH IT.
HOWEVER, OF MORE INTEREST IS MODEL TRENDS OF INCREASING MID-
LEVEL HEIGHTS ALONG THE EAST COAST AND DIGGING A STRONGER TROUGH
INTO THE SOUTH. THIS RESULTS IN THE SHIFT OF THE TRACK OF A
NORTHWARD MOVING SURFACE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW FROM THIS, MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF I-81. IT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING TO SEE THIS FEATURE CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST ON THE
MODELING. HOWEVER, THE WESTWARD CORRECTION WILL BE LIMITED BY
ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH.
SEVERAL DIFFERENT BUT MAINLY WEAK SYSTEMS LOOK TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION NEXT WEEK WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE AS WELL.
DETAILS ARE STILL FLIP-FLOPING A BIT. HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR APPEARS TO BE INCREASING
FOR NEXT WEEK WITH SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE. WOULD THINK
OUR NBM GUIDANCE TRENDS COLDER AS THIS TIMEFRAME APPROACHES.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VARYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD RANGING FROM VFR TO LOCALLY IFR OR
WORSE WITH A COMBINATION OF CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CNY. AROUND 00-01Z THROUGH ABOUT 05-06Z, SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED AROUND THE NORTHERN TERMINALS, IN
PARTICULAR SYR, WHEN VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT ITS LOWEST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD REACHING LIFR RESTRICTIONS.
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST A LAKE EFFECT BAND MAY TRY TO BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED AROUND 10-12Z TOMORROW, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
COVER FOR THIS AT THIS TIME, BUT IF ONE DOES BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED, IT CAN BRING ADDITIONAL IFR RESTRICTIONS TO SYR.
BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT AND EASE A LITTLE BIT TOWARD DAYBREAK TOMORROW. FREQUENT
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR, ALTHOUGH
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT KRME AND KSYR WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-017-
018-036-037.
DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...DK
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