369
FXUS61 KBGM 160546
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1246 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL (MOSTLY LAKE
EFFECT) TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CHANCES ARE INCREASING FOR
SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY FROM A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ARE TRENDING COLDER FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT SNOW AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES THIS EVENING,
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
2) SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM.
3) TURNING MUCH COLDER NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR MORE SNOW
SHOWERS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW. COLD WIND CHILLS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A MID LEVEL LOW IS DRIFTING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY THIS
EVENING. SOME DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WRAP BACK INTO THE
AREA THIS EVENING, BRINGING MORE LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS TO
CENTRAL NY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST PREVALENT FROM LATE
AFTERNOON UNTIL AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATE TONIGHT
THE ENHANCED MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA, LEAVING
BEHIND SOME NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ACROSS THE I-90
CORRIDOR. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING, ENDING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BY MIDDAY. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR S. CAYUGA, ONONDAGA,
MADISON AND ONEIDA COUNTIES UNTIL 1 PM FRIDAY. EXPECT AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW, WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN ONONDAGA AND
PERHAPS NW MADISON COUNTY BY THE TIME THE SNOW COMPLETELY ENDS
MIDDAY FRIDAY.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, OUTSIDE THE ADVISORY ZONES, EXPECT
SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THIS EVENING WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS
BEING UNDER 1 INCH. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 20
MPH OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN
BETWEEN 10 BELOW ZERO AND 5 ABOVE ZERO. TURNING PARTLY SUNNY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO
LOW 30S EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING A ROUND OF
SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LIGHT SUB-ADVISORY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WITH IT, LIKE LESS THAN 2 INCHES FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO WARM NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE
30S SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THE
INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM.
THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. A SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP WELL OFF THE EAST
COAST. OUR AREA WILL JUST SEE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES BASED ON THE CURRENT MODEL DATA ALONG WITH SOME
SEASONABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SEVERAL DIFFERENT BUT MAINLY WEAK SYSTEMS LOOK TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION NEXT WEEK WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE AS WELL.
THE FIRST LOOKS TO BE A STRONG, ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH SOMETIME LATER ON MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
LIKELY HAVE SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SNOW SQUALLS WITH
IT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUNGE TO AROUND -23C
MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN AROUND 0 OR SINGLE
DIGITS. THE OVERALL FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN WESTERLY OR EVEN A
TOUCH WEST-SOUTHWEST AS THE CORE OF THE COLD COMES AT US FROM
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
WILL LIKELY BE COMING OFF OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS INTO CENTRAL NY,
AND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE LAKE ONTARIO SNOW BAND TO SEE IF
IF IT WILL STAY NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR PERHAPS WORK ITS
WAY SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY AT TIMES...THESE DETAILS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT IN TIME.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AROUND WEDNESDAY THAT COULD BRING
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD, AND BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR NEXT WEEK WITH SUB-
ZERO WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING OCCASIONAL MVFR
RESTRICTIONS AT KRME, KITH, AND KBGM; IFR RESTRICTIONS AT KSYR
EARLY THIS MORNING. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY THE LATE
MORNING. AT KELM, WHILE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STAY NORTH
OF THE TERMINAL, OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. AFTER 03Z TONIGHT, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO IMPACT KRME AND ASSOCIATED
OCCASIONAL MVFR VISBY RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ009-017-018-036-037.
DISCUSSION...MJM
AVIATION...BJG
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