343
FXUS61 KBGM 160632
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
132 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES WITH ONGOING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND SNOW
SHOWER CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING.
2) SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.
3) TURNING MUCH COLDER NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR MORE SNOW
SHOWERS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW. COLD WIND CHILLS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOME LAKE RESPONSE IS STILL ONGOING NEAR THE NY THRUWAY
CORRIDOR AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH LIGHT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO IN SPOTS. WILL KEEP
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS STILL MODELED TO COME NORTHEAST FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION SATURDAY.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT LOOKS PRESENT FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. GIVEN THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE SNOW IT WILL HARD TO
PINPOINT WHO WILL GET LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FROM THOSE WHO DON'T.
A FEW SPOTS EAST OF I-81 MAY SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL
WITH MOST SPOTS SEEING LIGHTER COATINGS.
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES HAS TRENDED
FASTER GIVING A EASTWARD BOOT TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING UP
THE EAST COAST. THE CHANCES OF SNOW ON SUNDAY ARE DECREASING
FROM THIS FEATURE. STILL A FEW SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
BE PRESENT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ADDITIONAL WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITH ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE
WILL TRACK THROUGH OUR REGION WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER
CHANCES NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW SOME LAKE RESPONSE IS EXPECTED BUT
A SLIGHT SW COMPONENT TO THE WIND DIRECTION MAY LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL OVER OUR REGION. ANY SLIGHT
SHIFTS IN THE EXPECTED WIND DIRECTION WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS WELL.
EITHER WAY, TEMPERATURES ARE SILL LOOKING TO TAKE QUITE THE
NOSEDIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A FEW
VERY COLD DAYS CENTERED ON TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND
CHILLS BELOW ZERO.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING OCCASIONAL MVFR
RESTRICTIONS AT KRME, KITH, AND KBGM; IFR RESTRICTIONS AT KSYR
EARLY THIS MORNING. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY THE LATE
MORNING. AT KELM, WHILE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STAY NORTH
OF THE TERMINAL, OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. AFTER 03Z TONIGHT, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO IMPACT KRME AND ASSOCIATED
OCCASIONAL MVFR VISBY RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ009-017-018-036-037.
DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...BJG
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