085
FXUS61 KBGM 161146
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
646 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES WITH ONGOING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND SNOW
SHOWER CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING.
2) SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.
3) TURNING MUCH COLDER NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR MORE SNOW
SHOWERS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW. COLD WIND CHILLS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOME LAKE RESPONSE IS STILL ONGOING NEAR THE NY THRUWAY
CORRIDOR AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH LIGHT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO IN SPOTS. WILL KEEP
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS STILL MODELED TO COME NORTHEAST FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION SATURDAY.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT LOOKS PRESENT FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. GIVEN THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE SNOW IT WILL HARD TO
PINPOINT WHO WILL GET LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FROM THOSE WHO DON'T.
A FEW SPOTS EAST OF I-81 MAY SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL
WITH MOST SPOTS SEEING LIGHTER COATINGS.
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES HAS TRENDED
FASTER GIVING A EASTWARD BOOT TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING UP
THE EAST COAST. THE CHANCES OF SNOW ON SUNDAY ARE DECREASING
FROM THIS FEATURE. STILL A FEW SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
BE PRESENT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ADDITIONAL WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITH ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE
WILL TRACK THROUGH OUR REGION WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER
CHANCES NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW SOME LAKE RESPONSE IS EXPECTED BUT
A SLIGHT SW COMPONENT TO THE WIND DIRECTION MAY LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL OVER OUR REGION. ANY SLIGHT
SHIFTS IN THE EXPECTED WIND DIRECTION WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS WELL.
EITHER WAY, TEMPERATURES ARE SILL LOOKING TO TAKE QUITE THE
NOSEDIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A FEW
VERY COLD DAYS CENTERED ON TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND
CHILLS BELOW ZERO.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A BAND OF STEADIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KSYR
THIS MORNING, WHICH WILL BRING IFR VISBYS. THIS BAND WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL RESULT IN
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN VISBYS BACK TO VFR BY 18Z. ELSEWHERE IN
CENTRAL NY, LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS FOR MOST
OF THIS MORNING BEFORE A GRADUAL RETURN TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
KRME LIKELY REMAINS VFR WITH THE MVFR RESTRICTIONS REMAINING
JUST SOUTH OF THAT TERMINAL. KAVP WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE ENTIRE PERIOD (AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY).
AFTER 03Z TONIGHT, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO IMPACT KRME AND ASSOCIATED OCCASIONAL MVFR VISBY
RESTRICTIONS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH KSYR BY
08Z OR SO, WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MVFR VISBY RESTRICTIONS
THERE AS WELL. ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL NY, MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING (GUSTS
UP TO 25KTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES, BEFORE WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHERLY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ009-017-018-036-037.
DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...BJG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page