551
FXUS61 KBGM 161804
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
104 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES WITH ONGOING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND SNOW
SHOWER CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING.
2) SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.
3) TURNING MUCH COLDER NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR MORE SNOW
SHOWERS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW. COLD WIND CHILLS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOME LAKE RESPONSE IS STILL ONGOING NEAR THE NY THRUWAY
CORRIDOR AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH LIGHT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO IN SPOTS. WILL KEEP
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS STILL MODELED TO COME NORTHEAST FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION SATURDAY.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT LOOKS PRESENT FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. GIVEN THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE SNOW IT WILL HARD TO
PINPOINT WHO WILL GET LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FROM THOSE WHO DON'T.
A FEW SPOTS EAST OF I-81 MAY SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL
WITH MOST SPOTS SEEING LIGHTER COATINGS.
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES HAS TRENDED
FASTER GIVING A EASTWARD BOOT TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING UP
THE EAST COAST. THE CHANCES OF SNOW ON SUNDAY ARE DECREASING
FROM THIS FEATURE. STILL A FEW SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
BE PRESENT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ADDITIONAL WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITH ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE
WILL TRACK THROUGH OUR REGION WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER
CHANCES NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW SOME LAKE RESPONSE IS EXPECTED BUT
A SLIGHT SW COMPONENT TO THE WIND DIRECTION MAY LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL OVER OUR REGION. ANY SLIGHT
SHIFTS IN THE EXPECTED WIND DIRECTION WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS WELL.
EITHER WAY, TEMPERATURES ARE SILL LOOKING TO TAKE QUITE THE
NOSEDIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A FEW
VERY COLD DAYS CENTERED ON TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND
CHILLS BELOW ZERO.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 00Z THIS
EVENING, WHEN A WARM ADVECTION BAND OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD CAN LEAD TO OCCASIONAL MVFR RESTRICTIONS
AT ITH, SYR AND RME.
AFTER ABOUT 05Z, SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN AROUND
RME AND SYR WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS. LOWER CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
DOWN INTO BGM AROUND THIS TIME AS WELL. EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
BETWEEN 10Z-12Z, SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WITH ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED
TO SEE MVFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. RME
AND SYR DO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME STEADIER
SNOWFALL EARLY-TO-MID TOMORROW MORNING AND THUS HAVE A TEMPO IN
FOR IFR OR WORSE VISIBILITY.
WINDS HAVE EASED UP AND HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST. WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS AT THE SURFACE, SOME
BORDERLINE SSWERLY LLWS IS SHOWN ON MODEL SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING
THROUGH 05Z-07Z. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT AVP, BGM AND ELM TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
WEDNESDAY...AN APPROACHING SYSTEM KEEPS THE CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR NYZ009-037.
DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...DK
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