313
FXUS61 KBGM 162001
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
301 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED SNOW TOTALS ACROSS ONEIDA AND PIKE COUNTIES HAVE
WARRANTED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ENHANCED AMOUNTS EXPECTED ON
SOUTHERN FACING HIGHER TERRAIN.
2) COASTAL STORM WILL MISS US TO THE EAST, BUT ARCTIC AIR BEGINS
TO MOVE IN SUNDAY, WITH COLD TEMPS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY.
3) COLD AND ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN ITS PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN US THIS AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND SLOWLY SLIDE EAST AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE
CENTRAL US TONIGHT, THE JET STREAM WILL AMPLIFY AND THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THIS
DYNAMIC LIFT COMBINED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
AREA WILL DEVELOP SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION STARTING THIS
EVENING AND LASTING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE CENTER OF THE
LOW TO OUR WEST AND NORTH, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
WIND DIRECTION INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
UPSLOPE FLOW TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INTO THE TUG HILL
REGION AND THE POCONOS/CATSKILLS. MODEL QPF IS SHOWING SOME
HIGHER AMOUNTS TARGETING THESE AREAS AND WITH COLD AIR ALREADY
IN PLACE AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY, ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS ONEIDA AND PIKE COUNTIES.
IN ONEIDA, UPSLOPE INTO THE TUG HILL WILL ALLOW FOR 4-6 INCHES
OF SNOW TO FALL NORTH OF I-90, WITH ISOLATED LOCAL AMOUNTS OF
7-8 INCHES POSSIBLE IF CONDITIONS CAN LINE UP CORRECTLY. ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-90, 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
IN PIKE COUNTY, 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY. 3+ INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER, SOUTHERN FACING TERRAIN.
LUZERNE, LACKAWANNA AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES HAVE BORDERLINE
ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE THEM IN THE ADVISORY. FOR LACKAWANNA AND LUZERNE,
THINKING IS THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA. THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE WYOMING VALLEY, COULD
REACH 3 INCHES BUT COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. FOR SULLIVAN COUNTY, ONLY THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS WERE SEEING 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND
LOWER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE A PRECIP SHADOW AS WINDS DOWNSLOPE
OFF THE POCONOS, LIMITING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY. LATEST MODEL RUNS SET UP A
GRADIENT OF HIGHER PRECIP TO THE EAST OF THESE AREAS, AND IF
THIS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE WEST IN THE NEXT MODEL SUITE, THESE
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE ADVISORY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE SAME UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE WILL DEVELOP A COASTAL
STORM IMPACTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIVELY TILTED FOR TOO LONG TO
GET THE COASTAL LOW GOING ON A TRACK THAT WOULD BRING US SNOW.
WE WILL HOWEVER START TO SEE ARCTIC AIR MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY BUT NOTHING
IMPACTFUL IS EXPECTED. LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOES NOT REALLY GET
GOING UNTIL MONDAY WHEN WINDS IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS LINE UP
BETTER. MOST OF THE LAKE EFFECT WILL MISS US TO THE NORTH AND
WEST, BUT WOBBLES IN THE WIND PATTERN WILL ALLOW SNOW TO MOVE
INTO CNY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE BIG IMPACT WE WILL SEE FROM
THIS SYSTEM IS VERY COLD AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA.
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL CRASH INTO
THE LOW TEENS FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
A FACTOR THAT PUSHES WIND CHILLS INTO THE -0S MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING SYNOPTIC SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW INTO THE WEEKEND. A "WARM UP" (HIGHS IN THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S) MAY OCCUR WED/THURS, BUT COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY MOVE
BACK IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS COLD AIR WILL HELP DRIVE
THE LAKE EFFECT INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH WINDS MORE WESTERLY, WE
COULD SEE MORE IMPACTS FROM LAKE EFFECT AND WILL BE MONITORING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 00Z THIS
EVENING, WHEN A WARM ADVECTION BAND OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD CAN LEAD TO OCCASIONAL MVFR RESTRICTIONS
AT ITH, SYR AND RME.
AFTER ABOUT 05Z, SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN AROUND
RME AND SYR WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS. LOWER CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
DOWN INTO BGM AROUND THIS TIME AS WELL. EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
BETWEEN 10Z-12Z, SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WITH ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED
TO SEE MVFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. RME
AND SYR DO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME STEADIER
SNOWFALL EARLY-TO-MID TOMORROW MORNING AND THUS HAVE A TEMPO IN
FOR IFR OR WORSE VISIBILITY.
WINDS HAVE EASED UP AND HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST. WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS AT THE SURFACE, SOME
BORDERLINE SSWERLY LLWS IS SHOWN ON MODEL SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING
THROUGH 05Z-07Z. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT AVP, BGM AND ELM TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
WEDNESDAY...AN APPROACHING SYSTEM KEEPS THE CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
PAZ048.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR NYZ009-037.
DISCUSSION...JTC
AVIATION...DK
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