142
FXUS61 KBGM 170633
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
133 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED SNOW TOTALS ACROSS MOST OF NE PA AND AREAS EAST OF
I-81 IN NY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES EXPANDED WESTWARD INTO
MORE OF NE PA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIOD OF SNOW INTO THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY EAST OF I-81.
2) COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS CENTERED ON TUESDAY. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MAINLY WEST OF THE AREA.
3) ANOTHER SYSTEM AROUND THURSDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING
SOME SNOW TODAY. A FAIRLY STRONG MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION THIS MORNING.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT LOOKS PRESENT TO DEVELOP AN AREA OF
SNOW ALONG AND EAST OF I-81 THIS MORNING THAT SHIFTS EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. FGEN FORCING IS FAIRLY NOTEWORTHY SO IT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING TO SEE SOME BANDING AND/OR MODERATE RATES FOR A
TIME. MODEL QPF HAS TRENDED HIGHER AND DID BUMP UP SNOW RATIOS A
TOUCH AS WELL. THIS GETS MOST OF NE PA INTO DELAWARE AND
SULLIVAN NY INTO THE 2-5 INCH RANGE FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS. WITH
THAT SAID, EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY A BIT.
LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN ONGOING ACROSS ONEIDA COUNTY, TERRAIN
SHOULD HELP TO LIFT SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND BRING A FEW
MORE INCHES OF SNOW TODAY. FOR THE ENTIRE REGION, WE DO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL COLD FRONTS. QUITE A BIT OF
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE SHOULD AID TO GET THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
GOING IN FULL FORCE FOR MOST OF MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER, THE MEAN FLOW FOR THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE SOUTHWESTERLY
WHICH FAVORS AREAS WEST OF OUR REGION. A WINDOW THOUGH OF MORE
WESTERLY FLOW IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
BRINGING A ROUND OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SNOW SQUALLS TO FORM MONDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MOISTURE. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED AS WELL.
HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS WITH WIND CHILLS
BELOW ZERO.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
MAY BE A BIT MORE POTENT. HOWEVER, STILL LOOKING AT SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CURRENTLY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SNOW AND LOWERING CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS
THAT A PERIOD OF IFR SNOWFALL WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT AVP AND BGM
AND ALSO AT RME AND SYR, WHILE ITH AND ELM WILL HAVE A LOWER
CHANCE FOR IFR SNOW, BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE GOING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
WEDNESDAY...AN APPROACHING SYSTEM KEEPS THE CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ040-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ009-037.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ057-062.
DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...KL/MPK
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