317
FXUS61 KBGM 180512
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1212 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED SNOW TOTALS ACROSS MOST OF NE PA AND AREAS EAST OF
I-81 IN NY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES EXPANDED WESTWARD INTO
MORE OF NE PA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FEW SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
2) COASTAL SYSTEM SLIDING BY WITH SOME SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
3) COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS MONDAY AFTERNOON, MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS, HEAVIEST LOOKS TO
REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
4) ANOTHER SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS APPROACHING FROM WESTERN NY AT THIS TIME.
MRMS RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LINEAR SNOW SQUALL
APPROACHING WESTERN NY. TEMPERATURES ARE MILD THOUGH, IN THE 30S
TO NEAR 40. CAMS SUCH AS THE LATEST HRRR AND 3KM NAM SHOW THIS
SQUALL APPROACHING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY 4-6 PM, BUT LIKELY
WEAKENING SOME. THE EASTWARD MOTION OF THE SQUALL OR ITS
REMNANTS SLOWS AS WELL, MAKING IT TO THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES
AND SYRACUSE AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 6-9 PM. OVERALL THE SQUALL
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN BY LATE EVENING, TRANSITIONING TO JUST
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTH- CENTRAL NY.
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH ARE LOCALLY POSSIBLE WITH ANY
OF THE BRIEFLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
STARTING OFF WITH THE BIG PICTURE. THERE IS POTENT SHORTWAVE
EVIDENT ON THE LATEST MID LEVEL WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER OKLAHOMA
MOVING EAST. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY, WITH AN ENHANCED STREAK OF MOISTURE NOTED ALONG WITH
ANOTHER SMALL SHORTWAVE OVER ILLINOIS/INDIANA.
A JET STREAK, WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE IS ALSO EVIDENT ACROSS THE
GULF INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US AT THIS TIME. THESE THREE FEATURES
ARE ALL BEGINNING TO INTERACT AND MERGE, WHILE TURNING NORTHWARD
AS MORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIVES SOUTH INTO THE ROCKIES.
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR A WEST/NORTHWEST SHIFT OF THE
PRECIP (SNOW) SHIELD WITH THE COASTAL LOW LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANED HEAVILY ON A BLEND OF THE HREF
AND NBM. WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR QPF, AND DERIVED SNOW
AMOUNTS. THE HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO BE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE
OF GUIDANCE, WITH THE RRFS AND 3KM NAM NOT QUITE AS FAR NW AS
THESE TWO OTHER CAMS. THE 18Z HRRR CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL BREAK OUT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
OUR CWA BY 3-5 AM EST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING; REMAINING IN PLACE
THROUGH THE MORNING OR EVEN EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOUR SUNDAY AS
THE COASTAL LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST. OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A
SIMILAR SITUATION, BUT NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE. DID DECIDE TO
PUT LOWER END LIKELY POPS INTO THE FORECAST AS MOST GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-88, BACK WEST TO BINGHAMTON AND
SOUTH INTO MOST OF NE PA. OVERALL, AMOUNTS ARE STILL ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE, WITH A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THIS
AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR TRACK AND QPF TRENDS.
IF AMOUNTS AND CONFIDENCE INCREASE SOME ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS,
BUT RIGHT NOW THAT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE MOST PROBABLY OUTCOME.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE PLENTY COLD FOR ALL
SNOW WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS IN THE MID-20S TO LOWER 30S.
SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS SHOULD AVERAGE 12-15:1 WITH THIS SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS COULD ACCOMPANY
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS WILL BE QUITE
STRONG AND BREEZY LATER MONDAY, MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY;
BETWEEN 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH EXPECTED. A LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL (850MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND -22C)
SHOULD GET THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW GOING IN FULL FORCE FOR MOST OF
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THE MEAN FLOW FOR THIS EVENT
LOOKS TO BE SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH FAVORS AREAS WEST AND NORTH OF
OUR REGION. THE LAKE ERIE SNOWBAND COULD OCCASIONALLY STRETCH
INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY, BRINGING LOCALIZED MAINLY LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT TIMES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE 20S, BUT FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY SEES HIGHS ONLY IN THE 10S WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD
AIR MASS OVERHEAD. WIND CHILLS WILL BE BELOW ZERO MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING; PERHAPS 5 TO 15 BELOW OVER THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW TO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A FRONT PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME LAKE EFFECT
BEHIND IT. 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -20C THURSDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH WITH LIGHT SNOW.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. A COLD ZONAL FLOW WITH A FEW WEATHER SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH LOOKS POSSIBLE. THEN INDICATIONS ARE FOR A
POTENTIAL ARCTIC OUTBREAK OVER VERY COLD AIR LATER NEXT WEEKEND
INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN
THE COMING DAYS TO SEE HOW MODEL GUIDANCE HANDLES THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE POTENTIALLY BITTER COLD AIR.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS NEPA AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN NY WITH
AVP LIKELY SEEING PERIODS OF IFR OR LIFR. BGM HAS LESS
CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL INTENSITY BUT PERIODS OF IFR SNOW IS
LOOKING MORE LIKELY IN THE EARLY MORNING.
THIS SNOW WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND 18Z IN NY BUT MAY
LINGER AROUND AVP, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAINING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
WEDNESDAY...AN APPROACHING SYSTEM KEEPS THE CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS, MAINLY FOR NY
TERMINALS (LOW CONFIDENCE).
THURSDAY...STRONGER SIGNAL FOR A FRONT OR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING BY WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ009.
DISCUSSION...MJM
AVIATION...AJG/KL
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