307
FXUS61 KBGM 180705
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
205 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY FOR
MOST AREAS EAST OF I-81 TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TODAY.
2) VERY COLD EARLY THIS WEEK CENTERED ON TUESDAY. LAKE EFFECT
LARGELY TO MISS OUR REGION. BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS.
3) ANOTHER SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LARGER SYSTEM POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PRESENT TO DEVELOP AN AREA
OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NE PA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AROUND
SUNRISE. THIS AREA OF SNOW SHOULD PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH THE TRACK AND RESULTANT QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM FOR
DAYS NOW. STILL QUITE A RANGE IN HI-RES DATA IS PRESENT AT THIS
LATE STAGE. INCORPORATED ELEMENTS OF THE NAM, RGEM AND HRRR
WHICH DID NUDGE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL FURTHER WEST
TODAY. A QUICK 1 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN PIKE AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES BY THIS
EVENING. AMOUNTS ARE UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT A FEW SLICK
SPOTS COULD STILL OCCUR.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A FEW OF THE HIRES MODELS DO DEVELOP A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS/SQUALLS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO BE LACKING ON MODELED SOUNDINGS FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, WINDS SHOULD INCREASE ALONG WITH ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLD AIR ENTERING THE REGION. THE MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SHOULD KEEP OUR REGION MAINLY FREE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
MONDAY.
TUESDAY CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED AS THE COLDEST DAY WHERE HIGHS
WON'T GET OUT OF THE TEENS. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OVER 20 MPH
SHOULD OCCUR AS WELL DROPPING WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO. WE MAY
REACH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR PARTS OF THE REGION AS
WELL. BRIEF INTERVALS OF WESTERLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO AND/OR
ERIE. IT WOULD BE A VERY FLUFFY SNOW GIVEN THE TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM TO LIKELY MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. LIKE THE PAST FEW, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY RING
OUT MOISTURE AS IT IS COMING INTO THE REGION WITH MOISTURE/
ACCUMULATING SNOW INCREASING AGAIN EAST OF OUR REGION. SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW COULD MATERIALIZE. HOWEVER, A LOT OF US IN THE
MIDDLE LOOK TO BE LEFT OUT OF ANYTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING
AGAIN.
A MORE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLENEXT
WEEKEND AS LARGE SCALE OVERRUNNING OCCURS AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTH TO THE EAST COAST.
THE GEFS ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE ON THIS WITH THE EPS A BIT SLOWER
IN THE TIMING. KEPT THE FORECAST CLOSE TO OUR NBM FOR THE TIME
BEING.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS NEPA AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN NY WITH
AVP LIKELY SEEING PERIODS OF IFR OR LIFR. BGM HAS LESS
CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL INTENSITY BUT PERIODS OF IFR SNOW IS
LOOKING MORE LIKELY IN THE EARLY MORNING.
THIS SNOW WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND 18Z IN NY BUT MAY
LINGER AROUND AVP, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAINING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
WEDNESDAY...AN APPROACHING SYSTEM KEEPS THE CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS, MAINLY FOR NY
TERMINALS (LOW CONFIDENCE).
THURSDAY...STRONGER SIGNAL FOR A FRONT OR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING BY WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...KL
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