865
FXUS61 KBGM 201927
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
227 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT AS
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. A WINTER STORM WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA FOR THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK. IN ADDITION, SNOWFALL
TOTALS WERE UPDATED FOR THIS SYSTEM. WINDS WERE ALSO INCREASED FOR
MOST OF THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONG
AND PASSING FRONTAL SYSTEMS ALL SHOULD LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND
LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW WIND CHILLS ARE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH NOT AS
LOW AS THIS MORNING.
2) A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY BUT WEAKENS
AS IT DOES. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
BUT ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
3. FRIGID CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THIS WEEK WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY KEEP HEAVY SNOW FROM THIS
WEEKEND'S WINTER STORM SOUTH OF THE REGION, THOUGH SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES FOR LOCALIZED AREAS IN CENTRAL NY.
THE BAND DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO DID DROP SOUTH AT TIMES EARLIER
TODAY BUT HAS SINCE DRIFTED BACK NORTH AS EXPECTED. THIS BAND WILL
STAY NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING, SO WHILE SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FAR N. ONEIDA,
LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. AS A RESULT,
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ENDED EARLY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
IS SUPPORTING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE
THAT HAVE EXTENDED EAST OF I-81. THESE STREAKS OF SNOW SHOWERS ARE
LIGHT AND EVEN JUST FLURRIES AT TIMES, SO LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS BAND AS WELL. BY LATER THIS EVENING, THIS BAND
WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BECOME CALMER TONIGHT, THOUGH WILL REMAIN BREEZY. SKIES
WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AND SHOULD LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING, SO
TEMPERATURES WERE BUMPED DOWN SLIGHTLY BELOW NBM GUIDANCE. TONIGHT'S
LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS IT WILL BE A FRIGID NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS BREEZY WINDS WILL DROP WIND CHILLS TO ZERO AND
BELOW. WITH CONDITIONS NOT AS COLD AS EARLIER THIS MORNING, NO COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
COLDER AIR RETREATS MIDWEEK AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DRAGS A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION WHICH THEN LEADS TO A SLIGHT WARM UP. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO CENTRAL NY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SNOW THEN CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ONTARIO. LOCAL TERRAIN AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL LEAD TO THE
HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN N. ONEIDA. A WINTER STORM WATCH
WAS ISSUED AS SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY. FUTURE UPDATES COULD UPGRADE
THIS WATCH TO AN ADVISORY OR WARNING DEPENDING ON HOW THE FORECAST
TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE TUG HILL/MOHAWK VALLEY DURING THIS TIME AND
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED ONCE THE CLIPPER SYSTEM HAS
PASSED THROUGH. ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD AIR MOVES IN FRIDAY BEHIND AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. T850 IS MODELED TO DROP AS LOW AS -25 TO -28.
WHILE THE START OF THIS WEEK WAS A COLD ONE, EVEN COLDER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN.
CONDITIONS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD TO ROUND OUT
THE WEEKEND AND TO START NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT
OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN US. THE COLDEST CONDITIONS OF MOST WINTERS
IN THIS AREA ARE TYPICALLY OBSERVED AROUND THIS TIME, SO AN EXTENDED
COLD SPELL LIKE THIS IS NOT THAT UNUSUAL. THE HIGH WILL POTENTIALLY
KEEP THIS WEEKEND'S IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THIS IS WHAT THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS IS SHOWING WITH NO SNOW
FOR ANY PORTION OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH A SLIGHT TREND
SOUTHWARD, THERE ARE STILL OTHER SOLUTIONS THAT EVENTUALLY BRING
THIS SYSTEM NEAR THE NORTHEAST. IF THAT HAPPENS, THEN SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH THE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE, THERE
REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS SYSTEM
TRACKS, SO CHANCES FOR SNOW REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF RME, BUT THE BANDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME LOWER CEILINGS
AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES CAN BE POSSIBLE AROUND ITH
AFTER 16Z. THESE LOWER CEILINGS COULD ALSO SHIFT NORTH TOWARD
SYR EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT WITH CONFIDENCE LOW WITH REGARDS TO
ANY RESTRICTIONS, BOTH ITH AND SYR WERE KEPT VFR AT THIS TIME.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY TODAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 20-25
KNOTS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS EXPECTED. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO START TO EASE TOWARD 00Z WEDNESDAY AND BECOME MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING BY WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE NY TERMINALS. BORDERLINE SWERLY LLWS ALSO
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT
INTERMITTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, GENERALLY
FOR SYR-RME-ITH; LOW CONFIDENCE ON RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009.
DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...DK/ES
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