225
FXUS61 KBGM 220000
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
700 PM EST WED JAN 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINDS WERE INCREASED ON FRIDAY. POPS WERE INCREASED SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND NORTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF AN
IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION TODAY
AND TOMORROW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW THEN DEVELOPS TOMORROW NIGHT AND
CONTINUES INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
2) AN ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK. DANGEROUS
LOW WIND CHILLS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
3. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR AN IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WHILE THERE DOES REMAIN
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST, THERE ARE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
SLIGHTLY WARMER LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA.
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL
SWEEP THROUGH BY THE EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AS IT PASSES THROUGH. WHILE INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY WEAK AND
THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A PRESSURE CHANGE, THERE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS SO
SQUALL-LIKE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE
THREAT DIMINISHING BY THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW THEN DEVELOPS, BUT SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE REGION TO
START. TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY BE AN
INCH OR LESS. HOWEVER, IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY, ACCUMULATIONS UP
TO 7 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE LAKE EFFECT BAND MAY DRIFT SOUTH AT TIMES INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA
ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH AND FLOW
THEN BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BAND TO THEN
DIP INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING AND CUTS OFF THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THE ESTIMATED SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THE LAKE EFFECT
IS SUB-ADVISORY WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES IN ONONDAGA, MADISON, AND ONEIDA
COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT THAT DROPS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY WILL
BRING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH IT. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION. BLUSTERY
WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER AS WIND CHILLS WILL BE -10 TO
-30. LITTLE RELIEF IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMB
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS BUT WIND CHILLS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE POSITIVES DESPITE LIGHTER WINDS. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WARMER BUT STILL FRIGID WITH LOWS IN THE POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS AND WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO. NO HAZARDS WERE ISSUED AT
THIS TIME, THOUGH AN EXTREME COLD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN N.
ONEIDA IF FUTURE FORECASTS REMAIN AS COLD AS THIS UPDATE WHILE THE
REST OF THE REGION WOULD MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
THIS WEEKEND WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTH SATURDAY BUT THEN BEGINS TO DRIFT NORTHWARD
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG HIGH RETROGRADES NORTHWARD INTO CANADA.
SNOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS UP THE
COAST. SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS THE LOW MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THEN NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW
WILL KICK OFF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM. WHILE SLIGHTLY
WARMER, CONDITIONS WILL STAY FRIGID INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED WITH THIS STORM AS MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS IS DUE TO THEM
FAVORING A DEEPER TROUGH OUT WEST AND MORE RIDGING IN THE EAST WITH
THE HIGH DRIFTING NORTHWARD COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS THAT HAD HIGH
PRESSURE STAYING IN PLACE AND MORE ZONAL FLOW IN THE EAST. THE
SYSTEM WOULD THEN RIDE UP THE RIDGE AND BRING WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE REGION. DESPITE THIS TREND, THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH THE RIDGE BUILDS AND SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING. EVEN WITH THIS NORTHWARD TREND, THE MIXED PRECIPITATION LINE
SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH, THOUGH WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR A DRY SLOT
THAT IS NOW SHOWN IN GUIDANCE THAT COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF WINTRY
MIX IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR
WARNING LEVEL SNOW (6" IN NEPA AND 7" IN NY) HAVE ALSO INCREASED
WITH AT LEAST 50% AREAWIDE.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVERNIGHT AS THE CLIPPER GRADUALLY MOVES
EAST ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY GOING TO AFFECT ONLY OR CENTRAL NY
TAF SITES, BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE AT RME, SYR AND ITH...BUT ELM AND BGM COULD STILL SEE SOME
BRIEF IFR OR BORDERLINE IFR VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
ALONG THE FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH FROM ABOUT 08-12Z EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THEN MAY LINGER
OR REDEVELOP AT TIMES INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 7-15 KTS, WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 20
KTS GRADUALLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE WEST-SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY, 10-20 KTS.
OCCASIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) IS LIKELY
AT MOST OF OUR TAF SITES THROUGH DAYBREAK (10-12Z
THURSDAY)...BEFORE ENDING. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 35-45 KTS AT 210
DEGS AT 2K FT AGL.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT
INTERMITTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, GENERALLY
FOR SYR-RME-ITH; LOW CONFIDENCE ON RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL SNOW MOVING IN; INCREASING
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IN TIMING AND TRACK. IFR OR LOWER
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY.
MONDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR LAKE EFFECT POSSIBLE WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ009.
DISCUSSION...BTL/MPK
AVIATION...KL/MJM
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