054
FXUS61 KBGM 221746
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1246 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXTREME COLD WATCH ISSUED FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BRING SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL NY
WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OUT FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY
UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. LAKE EFFECT SNOW THEN DEVELOPS TONIGHT
AND CONTINUES INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND, BUT IT WILL MOSTLY
MISS OUR REGION.
2) AN ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK. DANGEROUS
LOW WIND CHILLS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
3. SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
AND IS PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS ACROSS THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THE SNOW HAS BEEN QUITE INTENSE WITH THIS
SQUALL AND IT HAS EVEN PRODUCED A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES, BUT
WITH IT BEING 230 AM, AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED INSTEAD OF A SNOW
SQUALL WARNING. IF THIS SQUALL CAN HOLD TOGETHER AS IT CROSSES
CENTRAL NY, THEN SQUALL WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED AS WE NEAR THE
MORNING COMMUTE IN A FEW HOURS.
BEHIND THIS FRONT, LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPS, BUT THE HEAVY SNOW
BANDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT,
BUT AS FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY, THE
BAND SHOULD DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY AT
TIMES. BY THIS FRIDAY EVENING, THE BAND IS FORECAST TO DIP INTO
THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND PERSIST WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING AND CUTS OFF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THE ESTIMATED
SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THE LAKE EFFECT IS SUB- ADVISORY WITH
GENERALLY 1 TO 4 INCHES IN ONONDAGA, MADISON, AND ONEIDA
COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT THAT DROPS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY WILL
BRING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH IT. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION. BLUSTERY
WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER AS WIND CHILLS WILL BE -10 TO
-30. LITTLE RELIEF IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS BUT WIND CHILLS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE POSITIVES DESPITE LIGHTER WINDS. A
EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY
WITH THIS UPDATE AS WIND CHILL VALUES THERE COULD DIP TO OR
BELOW MINUS 30F. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER AHEAD OF OUR
INCOMING WINTER STORM, BUT STILL FRIGID WITH LOWS IN THE
POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS AND WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEED FOR REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT ONE
SHOULDN'T BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, SOME SWINGS IN THE PROJECTED STORM TRACK
AND THE SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW IS STILL LIKELY TO CHANGE SOME...AS
WE ARE STILL OVER 72 HOURS OUT BEFORE THE FIRST FLAKES START TO
FLY IN OUR REGION. HOWEVER, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH
THAT WE WILL AT LEAST SEE WIDESPREAD WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL (6
IN NEPA AND 7 IN NY), SO A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
SNOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY, BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS THE LOW MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SWATH OF VERY
HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MESOSCALE
BANDING IS LOOKING LIKELY. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO FORECAST
WHERE THIS HEAVY BAND OF SNOW WILL SET UP, BUT EARLY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR AVP AND BGM ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE. BOTH SOUNDINGS
SHOW A VERY DEEP AND SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FROM THE
SURFACE TO OVER 15K FEET WITH STRONG OMEGA THROUGH THE LAYER.
SNOW RATIOS WILL BE INTERESTING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF SOME LOCATIONS EXCEED A 20:1 RATIO WITH WHAT THE
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING. SO, EVEN IF A FORECAST QPF IS 0.60,
THIS COULD POSSIBLY YIELD SNOWFALL TOTALS OF A FOOT OR MORE.
ALSO, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SNOWFALL RATES UNDER THIS
MESOSCALE BAND EXCEED 1 - 2" PER HOUR AT TIMES. FINALLY, AT THIS
TIME, IT IS LOOKING UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE ANY MIXING IN OUR
FORECAST AREA, BUT IF THERE IS MORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH IN THE
COMING DAYS, THEN IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME WINTRY MIX TO SNEAK
INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA IN NEPA.
THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT MONDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, IN ITS WAKE, WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL
LIKELY KICK OFF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. WHILE THE START OF NEXT WEEK
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER, CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE FRIGID AND
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. ALSO, WITH TROUGHING
LIKELY REMAINING OVER THE NE US THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
MONTH, THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR MORE WINTER
STORMS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAIN LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD BRIEFLY BRING MVFR RESTRICTIONS
OVER CNY TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE ON SHOWERS DIRECTLY
IMPACTING TERMINALS IS LOW AT THIS TIME AND THEREFORE NOT
INCLUDED IN THE TAF.
WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. THERE IS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS AT ELM TONIGHT FROM 06Z TO 12Z. OTHERWISE
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS RETURN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT INTERMITTENT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, GENERALLY FOR SYR-RME-ITH; LOW
CONFIDENCE ON RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL SNOW MOVING IN; INCREASING
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IN TIMING AND TRACK. IFR OR LOWER
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY.
MONDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR LAKE EFFECT POSSIBLE WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ009.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR NYZ009.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
055>057-062.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR NYZ015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
DISCUSSION...BTL/MPK
AVIATION...ES
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