554
FXUS61 KBGM 221916
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
216 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXTREME COLD WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR
THE REST OF THE REGION.
SOME INITIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST BUT
CHANGES ARE LIKELY IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONDITIONS BECOME MUCH COLDER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
DANGEROUS LOW WIND CHILLS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ALSO EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
2) A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY.
3) THE WINTER STORM EXITS THE REGION MONDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW TO FOLLOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT. THE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL MAINLY STAY NORTH OF THE REGION TO START, THOUGH MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT SNOW EXTENDING FROM
LAKE ERIE INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION. THEN ON FRIDAY NIGHT, AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL NOT ONLY
BRING MUCH COLDER AIR BUT SHIFT THE FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
LEADING TO LAKE EFFECT DRIFTING SOUTH. DRIER AIR THEN MOVES INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
WITH THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS DROPPING IN BEHIND THE FRONT, THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON WILL BE OBSERVED FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO BUT
BLUSTERY WINDS WILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO -10 TO -30. FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD, THE EXTREME COLD WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR N.
ONEIDA AND A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE REST OF THE
CWA. LITTLE RELIEF IS THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BUT WIND CHILLS WILL STAY BELOW ZERO
FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE MAIN STORY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WHILE THERE IS STILL SPREAD IN TIMING, SNOW COULD MOVE IN AS EARLY
AS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT SUNDAY MORNING AS THE STORM MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEAST. THE STEADIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DGZ AND STRONG OMEGA
THROUGHOUT THE LAYER AS SEEN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WITH SIGNS OF
BANDING EVIDENT IN THE FORECAST, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
HEAVY SNOWFALL BUT EXACTLY WHERE REMAINS UNCERTAIN. SNOW-TO-LIQUID
RATIOS WILL BE AROUND 20:1 BUT COULD EXCEED THAT. IN ADDITION,
SNOWFALL RATES OF AT LEAST AN INCH PER HOUR CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL OF AT LEAST 6 INCHES. THE INITIAL FIRST GUESS AT SNOWFALL
TOTALS IS 10 TO 18 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL NY, NORTHEASTERN PA, AND THE CATSKILLS BUT THIS DOES NOT
INCLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THAT COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL VARY GREATLY WITH TIMING AND ANY
SHIFTS IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT
ON THE EXPECTED TOTALS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON MONDAY, PUSHING EAST BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
ALLOW SNOW TO CONTINUE TO FALL WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED. ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EAST, NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY
FLOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FOLLOWS BEHIND WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERNCES ON WHEN EXACTLY
THE SYSTEM EXITS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS START. GFS IS THE
SLOWEST SOLUTION, WHILE THE ECMWF AND CMC ARE MORE ON THE SAME
PAGE IN TERMS OF TIMING. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON MONDAY WILL BRING
850 MB TEMPERATURES TO -20 DEGREES C WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, BLENDED NBM 90TH
INTO THE FORECAST. WHILE THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER, CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE FRIGID AND REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT MONDAY AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER, IN ITS WAKE, WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST TO
WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL LIKELY KICK OFF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. WHILE THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER,
CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE FRIGID AND REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEK. ALSO, WITH TROUGHING LIKELY REMAINING OVER THE NE US
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE MONTH, THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR MORE WINTER STORMS.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAIN LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD BRIEFLY BRING MVFR RESTRICTIONS
OVER CNY TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE ON SHOWERS DIRECTLY
IMPACTING TERMINALS IS LOW AT THIS TIME AND THEREFORE NOT
INCLUDED IN THE TAF.
WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. THERE IS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS AT ELM TONIGHT FROM 06Z TO 12Z. OTHERWISE
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS RETURN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT INTERMITTENT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, GENERALLY FOR SYR-RME-ITH; LOW
CONFIDENCE ON RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL SNOW MOVING IN; INCREASING
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IN TIMING AND TRACK. IFR OR LOWER
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY.
MONDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR LAKE EFFECT POSSIBLE WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR NYZ009.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
055>057-062.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR NYZ015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
DISCUSSION...BTL/ES/MPK
AVIATION...ES
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