677
FXUS61 KBGM 231748
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1248 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP TOTALS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ONONDAGA COUNTY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD ANOTHER WINTER
HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR JOG NORTHWARD FOR OUR WINTER STORM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME, WITH STILL A
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM EXPECTED FOR THE AREA WITH A WIDESPREAD
10"+ WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLY OVER 20". THE FINER
SCALE MODELS WILL BE COMING INTO PLAY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NAM AND CMCREG ARE SHOWING STRONG SE
FLOW AT H850. THE NAM IS NOTORIOUS FOR DOING WELL FORECASTING
THE WARM LAYERS ALOFT AND THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS
WE GET CLOSER. THIS WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY NOT CAUSE MIXING PER
SAY, BUT IT MAY SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE SNOW RATIOS SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS NEPA AND POSSIBLY INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THIS WOULD
PRODUCE LOWER SNOW TOTALS IN THESE AREAS IF IT COMES TO
FRUITION. ALSO, MIXING IS NOT NOTED IN OUR FORECAST AT THIS
TIME, HOWEVER, A FUTURE CHANGE COULD BE WARRANTED IF THIS TREND
NORTH CONTINUES ANY FURTHER AND THIS WOULD ALSO HINDER SNOWFALL
TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA SOME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND MUCH
COLDER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
2) A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY.
3) THE WINTER STORM EXITS THE REGION MONDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW TO FOLLOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL NOT
ONLY BRING MUCH COLDER AIR TONIGHT, BUT SHIFT THE FLOW OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST, LEADING TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW DRIFTING SOUTHWARD
INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD BE CLOSE TO TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ONONDAGA COUNTY, BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF
FOR NOW ON ISSUING. WHEN LOOKING AT THE FORECAST SOUNDING FOR
SYR, ICE CRYSTALS WILL BE FORMING IN A LAYER THAT IS -25C TO
-35C. THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE GROWTH OF PLATES AND COLUMNS AND
NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF DENDRITES. SLRS WOULD THEN BE A LITTLE
LOWER AND THUS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY GET CLOSE, BUT NOT
EXCEED 4 INCHES. BEING THIS IS FORECAST TO BE A BORDERLINE LAKE
EFFECT EVENT AND THERE ARE ALREADY MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES OUT, DECIDED THAT IT MAY BE BETTER TO HOLD OFF ON
ADDING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO THE MIX. IF A LAKE EFFECT
BAND IS LOOKING REALLY WELL ORGANIZED LATER THIS EVENING, WE
CAN ALWAYS ISSUE A SHORT FUSE ADVISORY. GOOD NEWS IS THAT
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW, BUT WITH A GOOD THERE'S A BAD, BUT THIS
AIRMASS WILL BE MUCH COLDER. IN FACT, THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
OF THE SEASON THUS FAR WILL BE OBSERVED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO, BUT
BLUSTERY WINDS WILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO -10F TO -30F.
LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE COLD IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE
DAY AND WIND CHILLS WILL STAY BELOW ZERO FOR MOST OF THE
REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (NEAR 100%) THAT AT LEAST
WARNING LEVEL CRITERIA SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR AREAWIDE. IN FACT, A
LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW
FROM THIS EVENT. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW,
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND NORTHWARD WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT WE'D ALL FEEL
MUCH BETTER ABOUT THE FORECAST IF THEY FINALLY SETTLE DOWN ON A
SOLUTION TODAY. AT THIS TIME, A WIDESPREAD 12-18" IS FORECAST
FOR OUR CWA, BUT IT IS HIGHLY POSSIBLY THAT THIS STORM IS GOING
TO OVERPERFORM IN SOME AREAS AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL IT MAY
UNDERPERFORM IN OTHER AREAS.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR HIGHER END AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME IS
ACROSS EASTERN DELAWARE COUNTY AND INTO CENTRAL NY AND THE
SOUTHERN TIER. HOWEVER, LATEST NAM AND CMCREG BRING A LITTLE
HESITATION ON GOING BIG FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEPA.
STRONG SE FLOW AT H850 IS BRINGING IN WARMER AIR ALOFT. CURRENT
BUFKIT NAM SOUNDING FOR AVP SHOWS THIS WARMUP ALOFT AND
ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN REMAINS BELOW FREEZING, WE LOSE THE
SATURATED DGZ LAYER. THIS WOULD BRING LOWER SLRS AND POSSIBLY
CAUSE A CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SOME TYPE MIXING
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS NOTORIOUS FOR
DOING WELL FORECASTING WARMER AIR ALOFT IN SIMILAR SYNOPTIC
SETUPS, SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THESE FINER RESOLUTION MODELS COME INTO PLAY. EURO AND
GFS ARE STILL A SLAM DUNK FOR NEPA WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL, SO
THAT IS WHY WE ARE NOT GOING TOO CRAZY IN LOWERING TOTALS BELOW
A FOOT THERE AT THIS TIME.
MESOSCALE BANDING IS ALSO LIKELY TO SET UP SOMEWHERE AND THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOWFALL OF OVER 20 INCHES,
BUT EXACTLY WHERE REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. FINALLY,
HAVE SEEN A LOT OF CHATTER ABOUT SLRS ON SOCIAL MEDIA AND HOW
THEY WILL BE OVER 20:1 WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND YES, THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE CASE FOR SOME. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
SLRS ARE GOING TO BE TRICKY AND PROBABLY DIFFER DRASTICALLY BOTH
SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM. UNDER A MESOSCALE
SNOW BAND, ONE CAN CERTAINLY EXPECT THESE HIGH END RATIOS TO
OCCUR, HENCE WHY THERE IS SOME AREAS THAT WILL OVERPERFORM WITH
SNOWFALL TOTALS. IN ADDITION, SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER
HOUR OR HIGHER CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.
SO THERE IS STILL SOME TIME TO SORT OUT ALL THE DETAILS WITH
THIS SYSTEM, BUT BE AWARE THAT THIS FORECAST IS COMPLEX AND WILL
LIKELY CHANGE SOME, ESPECIALLY IF THAT NORTHWARD TREND BRINGS
WARMER AIR ALOFT INTO NEPA OR THE SOUTHERN TIER. DUE TO STILL
BEING 48+ HOURS OUT BEFORE THE FIRST FLAKES START FALLING, WE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON GOING TO A WINTER STORM WARNING WITH THIS
UPDATE. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO TAKE A GOOD LOOK
AT THE 12Z GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING THOSE DECISIONS ON HEADLINES
LATER TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON MONDAY, PUSHING EAST BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
ALLOW SNOW TO CONTINUE TO FALL WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED. ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EAST, NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY
FLOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FOLLOWS BEHIND WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERNCES ON WHEN EXACTLY
THE SYSTEM EXITS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS START. GFS IS THE
SLOWEST SOLUTION, WHILE THE ECMWF AND CMC ARE MORE ON THE SAME
PAGE IN TERMS OF TIMING. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON MONDAY WILL BRING
850 MB TEMPERATURES TO -20 DEGREES C WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, BLENDED NBM 90TH
INTO THE FORECAST. WHILE THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER, CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE FRIGID AND REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT MONDAY AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER, IN ITS WAKE, WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST TO
WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL LIKELY KICK OFF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. WHILE THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER,
CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE FRIGID AND REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEK. ALSO, WITH TROUGHING LIKELY REMAINING OVER THE NE US
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE MONTH, THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR MORE WINTER STORMS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON,
MAINLY FOR THE NY TERMINALS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN OCCASIONAL MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS, ESPECIALLY
AROUND ITH AND BGM. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST
25-30 KNOTS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
A WELL DEFINED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO
IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONSET
TIMING OF THE HEAVIER SNOW WITH THIS BAND FOR RME AND SYR
VARIES BY A FEW HOURS AMONG THE HIGH RES. GUIDANCE RANGING FROM
20-23Z FOR RME AND 21-23Z FOR SYR. AS THIS BAND MOVES IN, THERE
IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF IFR OR WORSE VISIBILITY AT BOTH
TERMINALS. AS THIS BAND CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTH, SOME LOWER
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND ITH LATER TONIGHT AND PERHAPS BGM.
WIND GUSTS WILL START TO BACK OFF A BIT LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE NEAR
SYR-ITH-RME FROM MORNING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS, THEN GRADUALLY
BECOMING VFR LATER IN THE DAY. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA, HEAVY AT
TIMES LEADING TO IFR OR WORSE RESTRICTIONS.
MONDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR LAKE EFFECT POSSIBLE WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AROUND, OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ009.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-
062.
DISCUSSION...BTL/ES/MPK
AVIATION...DK/ES
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