276
FXUS61 KBGM 231855
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
155 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER STORM WARNING ISSUED. SNOWFALL RATIOS LOWERED SLIGHTLY
IN NEPA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. OTHER SMALLER CHANGES
WITH THE STORM SUCH AS QPF, ONSET TIMING AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
CONFIDENCE FOR A HIGH IMPACT SNOW STORM CONTINUES TO INCREASE
ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW FOR A HIGH IMPACT SNOW STORM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
2) LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF BITTER COLD FOLLOWS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SYNOPTIC WISE WITH THE SETUP. LOW PRESSURE HAS
TRACKED INTO THE ROCKIES TODAY WITH BROAD STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH OF IT. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO
TRACK UP THE APALACHIN MOUNTAINS THEN REFORM NEAR DELMARVA.
THIS IS A CLASSIC TRACK FOR A HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT
THE REGION. PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIFTED ALONG AN
INVERTED TROUGH SUNDAY DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO OUR SOUTH
WHICH MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SNOW SHOWERS THEN
WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. ARCTIC AIR SHOULD HOLD FIRM KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL RATES WE LOOK TO START OFF LIGHT WITH VIRGA
INITIALLY OCCURRING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE HEAVIEST
OF SNOW LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELED FGEN
BETWEEN 800-600 MB IS INDICATIVE OF SNOWFALL RATES OF AROUND 1-2
INCHES PER HOUR. ALSO SEEING SOME SIGNS FOR LOCALIZED BANDING
OF EVEN HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CATSKILLS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE POCONOS AS WELL FOR A FEW HOURS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD THEN DECREASE DURING THE
EVENING AND DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW EXITS OFF OF THE
EAST COAST.
WITH REGARDS TO ANY MIXING THE 12Z HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED SLIGHTLY COLDER OVERALL. THIS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO KEEP
ANY MIXING WITH SLEET SOUTH OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TREND OF ANY MID-LEVEL WARM NOSES AS
THAT WOULD IMPLY MORE SLEET AND LESS SNOW IN NEPA. ALSO, IF WE
GET A DRY SLOT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE WOULD BE POSSIBLE THOUGH REGIONWIDE.
MOVING ONTO SNOW RATIOS. THIS IS PERHAPS THE MOST CHALLENGING
PART OF THE FORECAST. RIGHT NOW A RANGE OF 10-17:1 THROUGHOUT
THE EVENT APPEARS TO BE A GOOD FIT. MID-LEVEL WARMTH ALOFT
ACROSS NEPA PERHAPS INTO PORTIONS OF CNY LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIAL
COUNTER TO THE TYPICALLY FLUFFY SNOW WITH SUCH COLD
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, A LOOK AT THE GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SNOW GROWTH IN THE -10 TO -20C LAYER
WHICH WOULD IMPLY RATIOS CLOSER TO 20:1.
THIS GETS US TO A GENERAL 12-18 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. NEPA FACES THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINITY WITH BOTH LOCALIZED BANDING POTENTIALLY LEADING TO
18+ AND LOWER RATIO POTENTIAL. THE WESTERN CATSKILLS HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR TOTALS OF 18+ DUE TO ANY LOCALIZED BANDING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WINDS LOOK TO BE WESTERLY TO WEST NORTHWESTERLY FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE
FORECAST AT TIMES. ANOTHER BITTER SHOT OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED
TO MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. COMBINED WITH WINDS, WIND CHILL
VALUES MAY REACH -15F AGAIN IN SPOTS. NBM GUIDANCE IS LIKELY A
LITTLE LOW ON THE WIND IN THIS TIMEFRAME AS WELL. HIGHS ARE ONLY
FORECASTED TO REACH THE 10'S AND 20'S MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH
SINGLE DIGIT LOWS. IF WE GET CLEARING ANY PARTICULAR NIGHT, LOWS
WOULD LIKELY FALL WELL BELOW ZERO GIVEN SNOW COVER.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON,
MAINLY FOR THE NY TERMINALS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN OCCASIONAL MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS, ESPECIALLY
AROUND ITH AND BGM. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST
25-30 KNOTS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
A WELL DEFINED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO
IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONSET
TIMING OF THE HEAVIER SNOW WITH THIS BAND FOR RME AND SYR
VARIES BY A FEW HOURS AMONG THE HIGH RES. GUIDANCE RANGING FROM
20-23Z FOR RME AND 21-23Z FOR SYR. AS THIS BAND MOVES IN, THERE
IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF IFR OR WORSE VISIBILITY AT BOTH
TERMINALS. AS THIS BAND CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTH, SOME LOWER
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND ITH LATER TONIGHT AND PERHAPS BGM.
WIND GUSTS WILL START TO BACK OFF A BIT LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE NEAR
SYR-ITH-RME FROM MORNING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS, THEN GRADUALLY
BECOMING VFR LATER IN THE DAY. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA, HEAVY AT
TIMES LEADING TO IFR OR WORSE RESTRICTIONS.
MONDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR LAKE EFFECT POSSIBLE WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AROUND, OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ009.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-
062.
DISCUSSION...ES/MWG
AVIATION...DK/ES
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