049
FXUS61 KBGM 240027
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
727 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER STORM WARNING ISSUED. SNOWFALL RATIOS LOWERED SLIGHTLY
IN NEPA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. OTHER SMALLER CHANGES
WITH THE STORM SUCH AS QPF, ONSET TIMING AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
CONFIDENCE FOR A HIGH IMPACT SNOW STORM CONTINUES TO INCREASE
ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND MUCH
COLDER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
2) CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW FOR A HIGH IMPACT SNOW STORM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
3) LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF BITTER COLD FOLLOWS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH WESTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE. THIS HAS ALLOWED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO TRAIL INTO
CENTRAL NY THIS AFTERNOON OFF OF LAKE ERIE. AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
ALLOW A MORE PRONOUNCED LAKE EFFECT BAND FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO DOWN
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NY. WITH VERY COLD AIR IN PLACE MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING -25C
TO -30C. THIS IS NOT SUPPORTIVE EFFICIENT ACCUMULATIONS. SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE RANGING AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP
TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS IS JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ONONDAGA COUNTY, BUT IT COULD BE CLOSE. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF AND
NOT ISSUE AT THIS TIME. IF A LAKE EFFECT BAND IS LOOKING REALLY
WELL ORGANIZED LATER THIS EVENING, WE CAN ALWAYS ISSUE A SHORT
FUSED ADVISORY. TEMPERATURES FALL THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS DOWN TO -10F TO -30F. AN EXTREME COLD
WARNING IS IN EFFECT OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY AND COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.
LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE COLD IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE DAY AND WIND
CHILLS WILL STAY BELOW ZERO FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SYNOPTIC WISE WITH THE SETUP. LOW PRESSURE HAS
TRACKED INTO THE ROCKIES TODAY WITH BROAD STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH OF IT. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO
TRACK UP THE APALACHIN MOUNTAINS THEN REFORM NEAR DELMARVA.
THIS IS A CLASSIC TRACK FOR A HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT
THE REGION. PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIFTED ALONG AN
INVERTED TROUGH SUNDAY DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO OUR SOUTH
WHICH MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SNOW SHOWERS THEN
WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. ARCTIC AIR SHOULD HOLD FIRM KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL RATES WE LOOK TO START OFF LIGHT WITH VIRGA
INITIALLY OCCURRING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE HEAVIEST
OF SNOW LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELED FGEN
BETWEEN 800-600 MB IS INDICATIVE OF SNOWFALL RATES OF AROUND 1-2
INCHES PER HOUR. ALSO SEEING SOME SIGNS FOR LOCALIZED BANDING
OF EVEN HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CATSKILLS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE POCONOS AS WELL FOR A FEW HOURS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD THEN DECREASE DURING THE
EVENING AND DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW EXITS OFF OF THE
EAST COAST.
WITH REGARDS TO ANY MIXING THE 12Z HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED SLIGHTLY COLDER OVERALL. THIS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO KEEP
ANY MIXING WITH SLEET SOUTH OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TREND OF ANY MID-LEVEL WARM NOSES AS
THAT WOULD IMPLY MORE SLEET AND LESS SNOW IN NEPA. ALSO, IF WE
GET A DRY SLOT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE WOULD BE POSSIBLE THOUGH REGIONWIDE.
MOVING ONTO SNOW RATIOS. THIS IS PERHAPS THE MOST CHALLENGING
PART OF THE FORECAST. RIGHT NOW A RANGE OF 10-17:1 THROUGHOUT
THE EVENT APPEARS TO BE A GOOD FIT. MID-LEVEL WARMTH ALOFT
ACROSS NEPA PERHAPS INTO PORTIONS OF CNY LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIAL
COUNTER TO THE TYPICALLY FLUFFY SNOW WITH SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER, A LOOK AT THE GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SNOW GROWTH IN THE -10 TO -20C LAYER WHICH WOULD
IMPLY RATIOS CLOSER TO 20:1.
THIS GETS US TO A GENERAL 12-18 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. NEPA FACES THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINITY
WITH BOTH LOCALIZED BANDING POTENTIALLY LEADING TO 18+ AND
LOWER RATIO POTENTIAL. THE WESTERN CATSKILLS HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR TOTALS OF 18+ DUE TO ANY LOCALIZED BANDING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
WINDS LOOK TO BE WESTERLY TO WEST NORTHWESTERLY FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE
FORECAST AT TIMES. ANOTHER BITTER SHOT OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED
TO MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. COMBINED WITH WINDS, WIND CHILL
VALUES MAY REACH -15F AGAIN IN SPOTS. NBM GUIDANCE IS LIKELY A
LITTLE LOW ON THE WIND IN THIS TIMEFRAME AS WELL. HIGHS ARE ONLY
FORECASTED TO REACH THE 10'S AND 20'S MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH
SINGLE DIGIT LOWS. IF WE GET CLEARING ANY PARTICULAR NIGHT, LOWS
WOULD LIKELY FALL WELL BELOW ZERO GIVEN SNOW COVER.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A WELL DEFINED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO
IS NOW SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE I-90
CORRIDOR FROM SYR EAST TO RME. TIMING FOR THIS SNOW BAND IS
MAINLY NOW THROUGH ABOUT 04-05Z, BEFORE IT DROPS SOUTH AND
TRANSITIONS INTO MULTI-BANDS OVER CENTRAL NY.
AS THIS BAND MOVES THROUGH, THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY AT BOTH SYR/RME TERMINALS. AS THIS BAND
CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTH, SOME LOWER CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AROUND ITH LATER TONIGHT AND PERHAPS BGM ALONG WITH SOME LIGHTER
SNOW SHOWERS (MAINLY MVFR, PERHAPS TEMPO IFR). GUSTY WINDS EARLY
THIS EVENING, UP TO 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH DOWN BELOW 15-20 KTS
OVERNIGHT, AND EVEN LIGHTER HEADING INTO SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR UNTIL SNOW MOVES INTO AVP-ELM-BGM
LATE AT NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING (AFTER 09Z).
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA, HEAVY AT
TIMES LEADING TO IFR-LIFR OR WORSE RESTRICTIONS.
MONDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR LAKE EFFECT POSSIBLE WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AROUND, OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ009.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ015>018-
022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
DISCUSSION...ES/MJM
AVIATION...DK/ES
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