498
FXUS61 KBGM 241753
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1253 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE WINTER STORM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
BUT STILL EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW.
INCREASED POPS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND FLURRIES ACROSS CNY. ALSO INCREASE POPS FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDWEEK FOR ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DANGEROUSLY COLD START START TODAY ALONG WITH LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TAPERS OFF BY THE
AFTERNOON.
2) HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
3) LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND A FRESH SHOT OF BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR
IS IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES AND AN EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING. WHILE WIND GUSTS ARE NOT AS
STRONG AS THEY WERE LAST NIGHT, THERE IS ENOUGH OF A LIGHT
BREEZE TO LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 BELOW THIS
MORNING WITH LOCALIZED VALUES NEAR 30 BELOW ZERO. WINDS WILL
EASE UP A BIT MORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONG 1040MB HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD, BUT APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND FLURRIES AROUND CNY THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND RETRACT MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN FINGER
LAKES REGION BY MID MORNING AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW AT 850MB STARTS TO WEAKEN. THE
LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AND TAPER OFF
DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS THE WEAK 850MB RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS IN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IMPACTING
THE AREA BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED
OVERALL WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND PROGRESSION OF THIS BROAD,
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM CURRENTLY BEING FED BY BOTH PACIFIC AND GULF
MOISTURE. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE WESTERN GULF/LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY
EVENING. PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIFTED
ALONG WITH A DEEPENING, MORE AMPLIFIED INVERTED TROUGH SUNDAY
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SPREADING NORTHWARD AND PUSHING INTO
NE PA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY BEFORE DAYBREAK. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE I-90 CORRIDOR BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. THE
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STEADILY AND LOCALLY HEAVILY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY EVENING. LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY, A POTENTIAL DRY SLOT MAY WORK ITS WAY UP FROM
THE SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA, AND WHILE THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME LESS INTENSE, OR PERHAPS EVEN END FOR A TIME, WRAP AROUND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP INTERMITTENT
SNOW AROUND DURING THE DAY MONDAY. AS WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FROM THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES
TO ONEIDA COUNTY.
IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL RATES, SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
INITIALLY WITH RATES STAYING LESS THAN AN INCH PER HOUR THROUGH
THE MORNING SUNDAY. SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED AS STRONG FGEN BANDS AT 850MB AND 700MB
LIFT THROUGH. SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR, BUT COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS NE PA
THROUGH THE CATSKILLS WHERE THE STRONGEST FGEN BANDING LOOKS TO
BE.
WHILE WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SEE ALL SNOW SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT, THE LATEST RUN OF THE NAM AND NAMNEST ARE A LITTLE
CLOSE FOR COMFORT WITH SLEET MIXING IN SUNDAY EVENING. THE NAM
HAS SEERLY WINDS AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 850MB PUSHING THE WARM NOSE
OF AIR INTO THE LEHIGH VALLEY, SOUTHERN POCONOS AND EVEN EXTREME
SOUTHERN PIKE COUNTY. THE NAMNEST HAS SEERLY WINDS AT 850MB OF
ABOUT 35 KNOTS, SO THE WARM NOSE IS KEPT TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY
(06Z DATA STARTING TO ROLL IN LOOKS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND
WEST WITH MIXING). THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
ALSO, IF WE GET A DRY SLOT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
ALL IN ALL, A GENERAL 12 TO 18 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION
IS STILL EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. NE PA FACES SOME OF THE
HIGHEST UNCERTAINITY WITH BOTH LOCALIZED BANDING POTENTIALLY
LEADING TO 18+ DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER SNOW RATIOS. THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR TOTALS OF 18+ DUE TO
ANY LOCALIZED BANDING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A FRESH BLAST OF BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH IN
LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND REMAINS LOCKED IN AS ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLD AIR REINFORCES THE WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
MID TO LATE WEEK. WITH WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
DURING MUCH OF THIS TIME, LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED,
PRIMARILY ACROSS CNY, AND POPS WERE INCREASED FROM NBM LATE
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TO REFLECT THIS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
ZERO.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FINGER LAKE EFFECT DRIVEN MVFR CONTINUES AT ITH THIS AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE RESTRICTIONS WELL SO USED MOSTLY
SATELLITE PATTERNS AND SURFACE OBS FOR THE FORECAST. MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD STICK AROUND INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. A WIND
SHIFT AFTER 22Z SHOULD END THE RESTRICTIONS HERE WITH VFR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
A LARGE WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY
MORNING. SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS WILL START AT
AVP AROUND 11-12Z AND SPREAD NORTH. DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE
SHOULD SUPPRESS INITIAL SNOWFALL AND RESTRICTIONS TO A SHORT
PERIOD OF MVFR VISBY BEFORE IFR FILLS IN SHORTLY AFTERWARD.
AVP/ELM/BGM/ITH WILL BE IFR AND LOWER BY MID MORNING WITH
SYR/RME BY NOON.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA,
HEAVY AT TIMES LEADING TO IFR OR WORSE RESTRICTIONS. LIFR
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT ALL
TERMINALS.
MONDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR LAKE EFFECT POSSIBLE WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS, OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
DISCUSSION...DK/MJM
AVIATION...JTC
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