642
FXUS61 KBGM 241839
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
139 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. LESS SNOW
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE WYOMING VALLEY AND POCONOS DUE TO
MIXING WITH SLEET. SLIGHTLY MORE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED NEAR THE
NY/PA LINE EASTWARD TOWARD THE CATSKILLS DUE TO BANDING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
2) LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND A FRESH SHOT OF BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR
IS IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THEN REFORM OFF THE
EAST COAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL OVERRUN AN
INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP WIDESPREAD SNOW WHICH MOVES IN
DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. SNOW SHOULD BE
HEAVIEST FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SNOW
LOOKS TO EXIT SLIGHTLY FASTER THOUGH WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL SHOULD THEN START UP MONDAY NIGHT. BLOWING SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS WINDS INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE QUITE COLD AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR BANDING HAS INCREASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH THE NAM 600-800 MB LAYER NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR AT THE PEAK OF THE
STORM FROM THE NY/PA LINE EASTWARD TOWARD THE CATSKILLS. THE
EXPERIMENTAL RRFS IS SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF BANDING AS WELL WITH
HOURLY QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND .15 TOO IN THE MID AFTERNOON TILL
EARLY EVENING. WITH THAT SAID SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED TO AROUND 18 INCHES, LOCALLY UP TO 2 FEET. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THIS ARE IN SUSQUEHANNA, BROOME, DELAWARE
AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES. THIS BANDING HAS A TENDENCY TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD AS A STORM GETS CLOSER BUT TRIED TO OFFSET THAT BY
ALREADY PLACING THE HIGHEST TOTALS A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN
MODEL CONSENSUS.
SNOW RATIOS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE 15-20:1 RANGE FOR CNY GIVEN
THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND A FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ZONE WITH LIFT
IN THE -10 TO -20C LAYER. RATIOS HAVE TRENDED LOWER ACROSS THE
WYOMING VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS WHERE SLEET IS NOW
EXPECTED TO MIX IN. THIS MAY CAP TOTALS FOR SNOWFALL CLOSER TO
10 INCHES BUT INCREASE THE WEIGHT OF THE SNOW COVER GIVEN THE
ADDED SLEET. THE WARM NOSE CONTINUES TO TREND SLIGHTLY NORTH
WITH EACH MODEL RUN AND HAVE FORECASTED TOTALS BASED ON THE MORE
NORTHERN MODEL GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE NAM TO ACCOUNT FOR TYPICAL
TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
UPDATE COMING SHORTLY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FINGER LAKE EFFECT DRIVEN MVFR CONTINUES AT ITH THIS AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE RESTRICTIONS WELL SO USED MOSTLY
SATELLITE PATTERNS AND SURFACE OBS FOR THE FORECAST. MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD STICK AROUND INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. A WIND
SHIFT AFTER 22Z SHOULD END THE RESTRICTIONS HERE WITH VFR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
A LARGE WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY
MORNING. SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS WILL START AT
AVP AROUND 11-12Z AND SPREAD NORTH. DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE
SHOULD SUPPRESS INITIAL SNOWFALL AND RESTRICTIONS TO A SHORT
PERIOD OF MVFR VISBY BEFORE IFR FILLS IN SHORTLY AFTERWARD.
AVP/ELM/BGM/ITH WILL BE IFR AND LOWER BY MID MORNING WITH
SYR/RME BY NOON.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA,
HEAVY AT TIMES LEADING TO IFR OR WORSE RESTRICTIONS. LIFR
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT ALL
TERMINALS.
MONDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR LAKE EFFECT POSSIBLE WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS, OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...JTC
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