093
FXUS61 KBGM 250020
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
720 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. LESS SNOW
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE WYOMING VALLEY AND POCONOS DUE TO
MIXING WITH SLEET. SLIGHTLY MORE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED NEAR THE
NY/PA LINE EASTWARD TOWARD THE CATSKILLS DUE TO BANDING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
2) LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT, WITH WEAK
CLIPPERS AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE
RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATING TREND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THEN REFORM OFF THE
EAST COAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL OVERRUN AN
INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP WIDESPREAD SNOW WHICH MOVES IN
DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. SNOW SHOULD BE
HEAVIEST FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SNOW
LOOKS TO EXIT SLIGHTLY FASTER THOUGH WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL SHOULD THEN START UP MONDAY NIGHT. BLOWING SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS WINDS INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE QUITE COLD AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR BANDING HAS INCREASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH THE NAM 600-800 MB LAYER NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR AT THE PEAK OF THE
STORM FROM THE NY/PA LINE EASTWARD TOWARD THE CATSKILLS. THE
EXPERIMENTAL RRFS IS SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF BANDING AS WELL WITH
HOURLY QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND .15 TOO IN THE MID AFTERNOON TILL
EARLY EVENING. WITH THAT SAID SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED TO AROUND 18 INCHES, LOCALLY UP TO 2 FEET. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THIS ARE IN SUSQUEHANNA, BROOME, DELAWARE
AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES. THIS BANDING HAS A TENDENCY TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD AS A STORM GETS CLOSER BUT TRIED TO OFFSET THAT BY
ALREADY PLACING THE HIGHEST TOTALS A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN
MODEL CONSENSUS.
SNOW RATIOS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE 15-20:1 RANGE FOR CNY GIVEN
THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND A FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ZONE WITH LIFT
IN THE -10 TO -20C LAYER. RATIOS HAVE TRENDED LOWER ACROSS THE
WYOMING VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS WHERE SLEET IS NOW
EXPECTED TO MIX IN. THIS MAY CAP TOTALS FOR SNOWFALL CLOSER TO
10 INCHES BUT INCREASE THE WEIGHT OF THE SNOW COVER GIVEN THE
ADDED SLEET. THE WARM NOSE CONTINUES TO TREND SLIGHTLY NORTH
WITH EACH MODEL RUN AND HAVE FORECASTED TOTALS BASED ON THE MORE
NORTHERN MODEL GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE NAM TO ACCOUNT FOR TYPICAL
TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LARGE WINTER STORM. VERY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE, WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -20C OVERNIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY NIGHT, BACKING MORE WESTERLY TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
PARAMETERS ARE GOOD FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, STARTING ACROSS THE UPPER SUSQUEHANNA REGION,
FINGER LAKES THEN SHIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT TOWARD I-90. LAKE ERIE IS
MUCH MORE ICE COVERED NOW, AROUND 80-90% PLUS. LAKE ONTARIO IS STARTING
TO SEE SOME ICE, AROUND 20-25% COVERAGE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST SHORES. OVERALL, EXPECTING A FEW INCHES (1-3") OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS ONONDAGA, WESTERN MADISON AND NORTH-CENTRAL
ONEIDA COUNTY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE BAND IS RATHER TRANSIENT.
A WEAK CLIPPER LOW PASSED BY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ON TUESDAY,
BRINGING WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS TO CENTRAL NY. MINOR, LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN
1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THAT SEE MORE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE, IT REMAINS COLD AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 0 OR IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, WITH
HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID-TEENS.
COLD WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WITH
SOME MINOR SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TUESDAY NIGHT, AND IF SOME LOCATIONS
CAN CLEAR OUT, TEMPERATURES MAY PLUMMET BELOW ZERO, AS WINDS ARE
FAIRLY LIGHT AS WELL. THE NEXT DEEPER 500MB TROUGH DROPS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL CLIPPER
SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR CNY COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY, WITH
LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO, AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
TO TEENS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME, MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS
A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN OVER THE AREA RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
WITH THE BROAD 500MB TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST, OCCASIONAL CLIPPER LOWS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF
OF LAKE ONTARIO. EVEN BY NEXT SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE END OF JANUARY.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT MVFR SNOW DEVELOPS
FROM SW TO NE STARTING BY 9-11Z AT ELM AND AVP; 10-12Z AT BGM
AND ITH, AND BY 13-15Z AT SYR AND RME.
A LARGE WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY, SUNDAY NIGHT
AND LINGER INTO MONDAY. SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS
WILL START AT AVP/ELM AROUND 11-12Z AND SPREAD NORTHEAST.
IFR/LIFR SNOW REACHES BGM AND ITH BY 12-13Z SUNDAY, AND SYR/RME
BY 15-16Z. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE THEN POSSIBLE STARTING AT
AVP/ELM/ITH AND BGM BY 16-17Z, SPREADING NORTH TO SYR/RME BY
ABOUT 17-18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW, FREEZING FOG AND BLOWING SNOW THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL OF OUR TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH AT THIS TIME. SOME SLEET MAY TRY TO MIX IN AT AVP TOWARD
SUNDAY EVENING, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS AT THIS TIME. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE 5 TO 12 INCHES AT ALL TERMINALS BY 00Z MONDAY.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2, LOCALLY 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AT AVP SUNDAY EVENING AS A LOW
APPROACHES, INCREASING ESE WINDS AT 40 KTS WILL BE PRESENT AT
AROUND 2K FT AGL.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, LESS THAN 5 KTS. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY, BETWEEN 7-15 KTS. WITH THE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY, POWDERY NATURE OF THE SNOW, EVEN 10-15 KTS
OF WIND CAN CREATE SOME MINOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW IN
OPEN AREAS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...PERIOD OF SNOW CONTINUE, HEAVY AT TIMES LEADING
TO IFR OR WORSE RESTRICTIONS. LIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE. SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN AT AVP BEFORE ABOUT 06-09Z EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR LAKE EFFECT POSSIBLE WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BLOWING SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON AS NW
WINDS GUSTS 25-35 MPH AT TIMES.
TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS, OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
DISCUSSION...MJM/MWG
AVIATION...JTC/MJM
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