656
FXUS61 KBGM 250923
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
423 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO STORM TOTALS FOR THE SNOW STORM TODAY
INTO MONDAY WITH AN EMPHASIS MADE TO INCREASE TOTALS SLIGHTLY IN
SOME MORE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN/UPSLOPE AREAS OF CNY AND KEEP
TOTALS LOWER THAN NBM IN THE WYOMING AND DELAWARE RIVER VALLEYS
IN NE PA. THE END TIME FOR THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR LUZERNE,
LACKAWANNA, PIKE AND SOUTHERN WAYNE COUNTIES WAS MOVED UP TO 1
PM MONDAY FROM 7 PM AS AN EXPECTED DRY SLOT LOOKS TO END SNOW IN
THIS AREA SOONER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TODAY INTO
MONDAY; LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF SLEET MIXING IN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN PORTIONS OF NE PA.
2) LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT, WITH WEAK
CLIPPERS AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE
RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATING TREND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SNOW CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL PA CONTINUES TO PRESS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL BE OVERSPREADING
NE PA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE I-90 CORRIDOR BY MID-MORNING.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME STRONG
FGEN BANDING AT 850MB AND 700MB THAT WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL
BANDING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY OVER
NE PA, PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO THE CATSKILLS, BUT
WITH HOW QUICKLY THIS ENHANCED LIFTING MOVES TO THE NORTH AND
EAST, ANY HEAVIER BANDS SHOULD BE TRANSIENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL TO START SEEING SNOWFALL RATES NEARING
OR REACHING 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES IS AROUND 19Z WITH A FEW
POCKETS OF SNOWFALL RATES NEARING 3 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET MIXING IN REMAINS A CONCERN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE PA AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN SULLIVAN COUNTY. AROUND
20-21Z, 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO ABOUT 50 KNOTS OUT OF THE SE
DRIVING THE WARM NOSE ALOFT TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THE NAM
REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH SO TO SPEAK WITH GETTING SLEET INTO
THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND TYPICALLY DOES BEST
WHEN IT COMES TO HAVING A WARM LAYER INVOLVED, BUT THE CANADIAN
AND THE GFS ARE NOT TOO FAR AWAY EITHER. BECAUSE OF THIS
POTENTIAL, SLR VALUES WERE LOWERED AFTER 18Z IN THIS REGION,
ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO KEEP SNOW TOTALS AROUND 10
TO 12 INCHES. SOME HIGH RES. GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A DRY SLOT
MOVING INTO THE AREA AROUND 00-01Z WHICH CAN ALSO AID IN KEEPING
SNOW TOTALS LOWER IN THIS AREA. ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION,
A GENERAL 12 TO 18 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEARING 2 FEET,
ESPECIALLY IN THE CATSKILLS, IS EXPECTED. A COUPLE OF OTHER
PIECES TO THE PUZZLE THAT WILL BE MONITORED ARE POTENTIAL
POCKETS OF SINKING AIR MOVING IN IN THE MID LEVELS AFTER THE
FGEN BANDS DEPART, AND THE EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. COULD
ONE OR BOTH OF THESE RESULT IN ANY DRIER AIR MIXING IN OR
DOWNSLOPING TO REDUCE SNOW TOTALS ACROSS CNY, ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE CATSKILLS.
THE TREND OF THE STEADIER SNOW EXITING AND ENDING SLIGHTLY
FASTER CONTINUES LATE TONIGHT, BUT ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY FROM WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
FROM THE DEPARTING LOW LOCATED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. QPF
AMOUNTS WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM NBM AFTER 06Z TO REFLECT THE
QUICKER EXIT. SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AS WINDS INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE QUITE COLD AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON MONDAY WILL LEAD TO WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ALONG WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF
OF LAKE ONTARIO FOR THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION AND
SYRACUSE METRO THAT COULD KEEP TRAVEL CONDITIONS SLOW AROUND THE
I-90 CORRIDOR.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND
WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT, WINDS BECOME MORE WEST THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL LIFT THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO THE NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR TOWARD DAYBREAK.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO A FEW DEGREES
BELOW ZERO.
A WEAKENING CLIPPER APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TUESDAY
CAN LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY OVER CNY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WITH IT A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AND AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE SWINGS THROUGH, WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DROPPING
BACK SOUTH INTO CNY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID-TEENS. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT RANGE FROM ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE TO 5 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.
THE NEXT DEEPER 500MB TROUGH DROPS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY, ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL CLIPPER SYSTEM. THIS
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CNY. AT THIS TIME, MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS A RATHER STAGNANT
PATTERN OVER THE AREA RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH THE A 500MB
TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST, AND
OCCASIONAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF OF
LAKE ONTARIO. WITH THE NBM BEING UNDERDONE WITH THIS LAKE EFFECT
SETUP, THE CANADIAN WAS BLENDED INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK TO INCREASE POPS IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY, WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO,
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR WITH SOME SNOW BEGINNING TO SHOW UP
ON RADAR. IT WILL STILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR THIS SNOW TO
REACH THE GROUND WITH AVP LIKELY SEEING SNOW STARTING PRIOR TO
12Z. SNOW MOVES NORTH BETWEEN 11Z TO 15Z WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY
BECOMING LIFR OR WORSE A FEW HOURS AFTER SNOW ONSET. SNOW LOOKS
TO REMAIN STEADY FROM THE MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS WITH LITTLE BREAKS IN THE LIFR.
SNOW DOES BEGIN TO TAPER AROUND AVP (COULD MIX WITH SLEET AT
TIMES) BY AROUND 0Z WITH SNOW HOLDING ON LONGER NORTH. SYR,
ITH, AND RME MAY HOLD ONTO IFR AND WORSE VIS FROM SNOW THROUGH
6Z. BGM AND ELM ARE ON THE EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT THAT WILL AFFECT
AVP SO THERE IS THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IF THEY CAN HOLD ON TO IFR
OR WORSE OR SEE AT LEAST SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AFTER 0Z AND
BEFORE 6Z.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR LAKE EFFECT POSSIBLE WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BLOWING SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON AS NW
WINDS GUSTS 25-35 MPH AT TIMES.
TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS, OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ038>040.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ043-044-047-
048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-
022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
DISCUSSION...DK/MJM
AVIATION...AJG
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