222
FXUS61 KBGM 251802
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
102 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ONGOING WINTER STORM BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM IN PROGRESS, TAPERS OFF TO SNOW
SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW BY MONDAY.
2) LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT, WITH WEAK
CLIPPERS AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE
RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATING TREND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE DELMARVA REGION BY
EVENING. SOMEWHAT WARMER AND MOISTER AIR WILL CONTINUED TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. FEGN FORCING
FROM 600-800 MB CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL
RATES FROM BANDING AROUND 2 INCHES PER HOUR FOR MOST OF CNY AND
NEPA FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS SIGNAL IS STILL SHOWING UP ON MOST OF THE HIRES MODEL
GUIDANCE. LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AND MONDAY. OVERALL, TIMING CONTINUES TO TREND SLIGHTLY FASTER.
MODELED SOUNDINGS AND OBSERVATIONS SEEM TO INDICATE RATIOS OF
15-20:1 TOO. THESE STILL MAY LOWER SOME IN THE WYOMING VALLEY AS
WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN. A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET IS LOOKING TO
BE LESS OF A POTENTIAL NOW THOUGH. OVERALL, TOTALS HAVE COME UP
A BIT FOR NEPA (10-15IN) AND ARE ABOUT THE SAME IN CNY (15-20IN).
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TODAY, PERHAPS
RISING INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT. WITH A LITTLE BIT OF WIND,
SINGLE DIGIT TO BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
COLD WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STILL MAINLY IN
THE TEENS FOR HIGHS, MAYBE A FEW LOW 20'S. OUR MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE FROM BLOWING SNOW AS WINDS INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR AS
WELL. WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW SOME LAKE RESPONSE IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO BRINGING A HIGHER COVERAGE
OF SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR. RATIOS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO HIGH, SO ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF FLUFF IS QUITE
POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND
WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT, WINDS BECOME MORE WEST THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL LIFT THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO THE NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR TOWARD DAYBREAK.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO A FEW DEGREES
BELOW ZERO.
A WEAKENING CLIPPER APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TUESDAY
CAN LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY OVER CNY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WITH IT A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AND AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE SWINGS THROUGH, WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DROPPING
BACK SOUTH INTO CNY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID-TEENS. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT RANGE FROM ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE TO 5 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.
THE NEXT DEEPER 500MB TROUGH DROPS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY, ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL CLIPPER SYSTEM. THIS
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CNY. AT THIS TIME, MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS A RATHER STAGNANT
PATTERN OVER THE AREA RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH THE A 500MB
TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST, AND
OCCASIONAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF OF
LAKE ONTARIO. WITH THE NBM BEING UNDERDONE WITH THIS LAKE EFFECT
SETUP, THE CANADIAN WAS BLENDED INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK TO INCREASE POPS IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY, WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO,
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SNOW IS MARCHING NORTHWARD AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP THIS MORNING
AND STEADY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO REACH SYR AND RME BY 14Z. AS
THE SNOW MOVES IN, VISIBILITY IS DROPPING PRETTY QUICKLY DOWN TO
LIFR. THE STEADY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED TO SEE VISIBILITY DROP TO BELOW AIRPORT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SNOW DOES BEGIN TO TAPER AROUND AVP (COULD MIX WITH SLEET AT
TIMES) BY AROUND 0Z WITH SNOW HOLDING ON LONGER NORTH. SYR, ITH,
AND RME MAY HOLD ONTO IFR AND WORSE VIS FROM SNOW THROUGH 12Z.
BGM AND ELM ARE ON THE EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT THAT WILL AFFECT AVP
SO THERE IS THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IF THEY CAN HOLD ON TO IFR OR
WORSE OR SEE AT LEAST SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AFTER 0Z AND
BEFORE 6Z. HOWEVER, TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, THE SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT AND START TO TAPER OFF
AROUND BGM AND ELM IF THERE IS NO IMPROVEMENT FROM THE DRY SLOT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR LAKE EFFECT POSSIBLE WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BLOWING SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON AS NW
WINDS GUSTS 25-35 MPH AT TIMES.
TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS, OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ038>040.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ043-044-047-
048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-
022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
DISCUSSION...MJM/MWG
AVIATION...AJG/DK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page