769
FXUS61 KBGM 252336
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
636 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ONGOING WINTER STORM BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS. INCREASED CHANCES FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILL TRENDING COLDER MOST NIGHTS AND MORNING, WITH THE
COLDEST READINGS LIKELY TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM IN PROGRESS, TAPERS OFF TO SNOW
SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW BY MONDAY.
2) LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS, WINDY AND VERY COLD MONDAY
NIGHT. WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL
BELOW AVERAGE RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATING
TREND POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL BE BETWEEN 0 BELOW
AND 20 BELOW ZERO EACH NIGHT AND MORNING, WITH THE COLDEST READINGS
LIKELY TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE DELMARVA REGION BY
EVENING. SOMEWHAT WARMER AND MOISTER AIR WILL CONTINUED TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. FEGN FORCING
FROM 600-800 MB CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL
RATES FROM BANDING AROUND 2 INCHES PER HOUR FOR MOST OF CNY AND
NEPA FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS SIGNAL IS STILL SHOWING UP ON MOST OF THE HIRES MODEL
GUIDANCE. LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AND MONDAY. OVERALL, TIMING CONTINUES TO TREND SLIGHTLY FASTER.
MODELED SOUNDINGS AND OBSERVATIONS SEEM TO INDICATE RATIOS OF
15-20:1 TOO. THESE STILL MAY LOWER SOME IN THE WYOMING VALLEY AS
WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN. A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET IS LOOKING TO
BE LESS OF A POTENTIAL NOW THOUGH. OVERALL, TOTALS HAVE COME UP
A BIT FOR NEPA (10-15IN) AND ARE ABOUT THE SAME IN CNY (15-20IN).
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TODAY, PERHAPS
RISING INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT. WITH A LITTLE BIT OF WIND,
SINGLE DIGIT TO BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
COLD WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STILL MAINLY IN
THE TEENS FOR HIGHS, MAYBE A FEW LOW 20'S. OUR MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE FROM BLOWING SNOW AS WINDS INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR AS
WELL. WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW SOME LAKE RESPONSE IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO BRINGING A HIGHER COVERAGE
OF SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR. RATIOS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO HIGH, SO ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF FLUFF IS QUITE
POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT, WINDS BECOME MORE WEST THEN SOUTHWESTERLY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL LIFT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO THE
NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR TOWARD DAYBREAK. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH
ARE STILL LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT, WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY BEFORE 4 AM EST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILLS BE VERY COLD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BETWEEN 0 TO 15 BELOW FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN THESE VERY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES.
A WEAKENING CLIPPER APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TUESDAY CAN
LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY OVER CNY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WITH IT A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR AND AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE SWINGS THROUGH, WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DROPPING BACK SOUTH INTO CNY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND
COULD BE RATHER WELL ORGANIZED ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF I-90 FOR A
TIME OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE HERE.
HIGHS TUESDAY RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID-TEENS. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE TO 5 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO AROUND THE AREA.
THE NEXT DEEPER 500MB TROUGH DROPS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY, ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL CLIPPER SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNY. AT
THIS TIME, MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN OVER THE
AREA RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH THE A 500MB TROUGH IN PLACE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST BRINING OCCASIONAL CLIPPER
SYSTEMS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH THE
NBM BEING UNDERDONE WITH THIS LAKE EFFECT SETUP, THE CANADIAN WAS
BLENDED INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK TO INCREASE
POPS, QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN STEADY, WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO, AND HIGHS IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE SOME, CLOSER TO, BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE BY NEXT WEEKEND.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 10S TO 20S BY SUNDAY UNDER PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
STEADY SNOW WITH LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING,
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 03-05Z BEFORE SLOWLY
TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO
END AT ELM/AVP/BGM BETWEEN 05-09Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
ITH/SYR/RME WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z WITH
IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WRAPPING
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM MAY KEEP
ITH/SYR/RME AT IFR THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
ON MONDAY. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KT TONIGHT WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTH AND BECOME LIGHT BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE
WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR LAKE EFFECT
POSSIBLE AT SYR AND RME WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BLOWING
SNOW MAY PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 15-25
KT AT TIMES.
TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS, OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ038>040.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ043-044-047-
048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-
022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
DISCUSSION...DK/MJM/MWG
AVIATION...BJT/JTC
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