952
FXUS61 KBGM 260837
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
337 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
THIS MORNING AS THE STEADIEST SNOW WITH OUR WINTER STORM HAS
COME TO AN END. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NE PA AND
STEUBEN COUNTY IN NY FOR WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
BETWEEN 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES PERSIST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE WINTER STORM DEPARTS. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH INCREASING WINDS.
2) A TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT; WINDY AND
VERY COLD. WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATING TREND POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE BETWEEN 0 BELOW AND 20 BELOW ZERO EACH NIGHT AND
MORNING, WITH THE COLDEST READINGS LIKELY TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WINTER STORM THAT MOVED THROUGH
THE REGION IS CURRENTLY CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD AND WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT TOWARD ATLANTIC CANADA. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS DEPARTING WINTER STORM WILL KEEP SOME
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES AROUND THIS MORNING, AND PERHAPS EVEN
SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE, MAINLY FROM THE TWIN TIERS ON
NORTH, THEN WE'LL SEE A TRANSITION TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNY. THE
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE AND AS IT
DOES SO, A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SETTING UP ACROSS
THE REGION LEADING TO INCREASING WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH, LOCALLY 35 MPH, CAN
LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WHICH CAN REDUCE VISIBILITY. HIGHS
TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOW 20S IN
SOME OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
THAT TAKES SHAPE BETWEEN THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES TO THE
SYRACUSE METRO/I-90 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. THEN AS WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS IN ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH, WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE WEST THEN SOUTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
LIFT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO THE NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR
BEFORE DAYBREAK. LAKE EFFECT SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE 2 TO LOCALLY 4
INCHES, WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ONONDAGA
COUNTY. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH ARE STILL LIKELY TONIGHT, WITH
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY BEFORE 4 AM EST. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. WIND CHILLS BE VERY COLD INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BETWEEN 0
TO 15 BELOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED WITH THIS UPDATE FOR ALL OF NE PA AS WELL AS STEUBEN
COUNTY IN THE WEST-CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
15Z TUESDAY MORNING.
A WEAKENING CLIPPER APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TUESDAY
CAN LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY OVER
CNY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WITH IT A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR AND AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
SWINGS THROUGH, WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DROPPING BACK SOUTH INTO CNY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND
COULD BE RATHER WELL ORGANIZED ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF I-90 FOR
A TIME OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE HERE. THIS BAND OF LES IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK
NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TUESDAY GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
MID-TEENS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO AROUND THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE CLOSER
TO 10 DEGREES AROUND THE IMMEDIATE FINGER LAKES AND SYRACUSE
METRO. WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS ARE IN THE TEENS.
A COUPLE OF OTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, EACH WITH THEIR OWN
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD, ARCTIC AIR AND CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND. WITH THE NBM BEING UNDERDONE WITH THIS
LAKE EFFECT SETUP, THE CANADIAN WAS BLENDED INTO THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK TO INCREASE POPS, QPF AND SNOW
AMOUNTS IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY,
WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO, AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL COLD
WEATHER HEADLINES APPEAR LIKELY MID TO LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
10S TO 20S BY SUNDAY UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MOST OF THE SNOW HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR AND EVEN SOME VFR. ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAINLY AFFECTING CNY
TERMINALS WITH SOME IFR VIS AND POTENTIALLY CIGS AS WELL. IT
ALSO LOOKS A BIT DRIER IN LOWER ELEVATIONS SO INCREASED CIGS
LATER TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPS LATE MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING, WITH SYR AND RME LIKELY SEEING IFR OR WORSE VIS AS THE
SNOW BANDS MOVE THROUGH. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IF THE BANDS MAKE
IT TO ITH AND BGM SO DID NOT LOWER RESTRICTIONS MUCH BUT THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VIS IF THE BANDS CAN MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH INLAND.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR LAKE EFFECT
POSSIBLE AT SYR AND RME WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BLOWING
SNOW MAY BE PRESENT WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 15-25 KT AT TIMES.
TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS, OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR NYZ022.
DISCUSSION...DK
AVIATION...AJG
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