057
FXUS61 KBGM 261938
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
238 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOW CHANCES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED ACROSS CNY THIS AFTERNOON AS
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS ARE MOVING OVER THE AREA AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 1PM TUESDAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED COLD
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AND INCREASING WINDS THAT SHOULD ALLOW
WIND CHILL CRITERIA TO BE MET UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NEPA AND STEUBEN COUNTY.
2) LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED THRU MOST OF THE WEEK,
MOSTLY IMPACTING AREAS NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
2) AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS TO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON AS SUNDAY'S STORM SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NE. A
SHORTWAVE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NY WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, ALLOWING NW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
AND COLD CANADIAN AIR TO FILTER IN BY LATE AFTERNOON. CURRENT
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 10S TO
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS BY 6PM. WINDS WILL BE ACTIVE TONIGHT AS
ISOBARS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TRANSITING SHORTWAVE STACK UP
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT FROM THE SW. EXPECTED 5-10MPH
WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE -5F TO -20F RANGE ACROSS
THE REGION. STEUBEN COUNTY SHOULD SEE THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS
WITH STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR STEUBEN COUNTY IN NY AND ALL OF
NEPA. ALL OF NY WILL SEE NEGATIVE WIND CHILLS BUT WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING IT TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO MEET CRITERIA FOR AN ADVISORY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
TO GO ALONG WITH THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.
CURRENTLY, A NARROW BAND OF SNOW IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AS WE ARE SEEING SOME WIND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS REGION. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO STAY
ACROSS NORTHERN ONONDAGA INTO ONEIDA COUNTY THROUGH THE EVENING.
LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS CNY INTO NEPA
THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO SOME VERY WEAK CAPE AT THE SURFACE AND
ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM THE FINGER LAKES. A QUICK BURST OF
MODERATE SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER ONE OF THESE HEAVIER
STREAMERS. ACCUMULATIONS UNDER AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.
A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SW LATER THIS EVENING, WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW THE ONTARIO BAND AND LAKE STREAMERS TO DISSIPATE.
SOME ISENTROPIC UPLIFT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
RIDGE AS SOME SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY IT.
THIS WILL GENERATE A BAND OF LAKE SNOW THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH
THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH OF ONEIDA COUNTY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE IN THE TRACE TO AN INCH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES, SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO THE
CATSKILLS AND NEPA. 2-4 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS ONONDAGA,
MADISON AND WESTERN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. NW ONONDAGA COUNTY
SHOULD SEE THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE.
A SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION ON TUESDAY, ALLOWING FOR
SOME MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
FINGER LAKES. ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE PASSES, FLOW BECOMES WNWERLY
AGAIN AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PUSH INTO ONEIDA, MADISON AND
ONONDAGA COUNTIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS INCURSION SOUTH WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AHEAD OF
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE, SWITCHING FLOW TO MORE WSWERLY AND PUSH
THE BAND NORTH OF THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING NW FLOW AND MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS THRU FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE #3
ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AT THE END OF
THE WEEK. A VERY POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH FROM THE NORTH AT THE END OF THE WEEK, SOMETIME ON
THURSDAY TO EARLY FRIDAY, DRAGGING -20C TO -25C 850MB AIR INTO
THE REGION. LOWS IN THE -0S THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ON FRIDAY. WITH WINDS REMAINING ACTIVE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD, WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 0 FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WHILE THE TIMING
OF THE COLDEST WEATHER IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS THE SPEED
OF THE TROUGH COULD CHANGE, HE COLDEST WEATHER IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE -10F TO -25F AREA WIDE.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT BY TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF KRME AND KSYR. SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING WITH A FAIRLY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR IFR
RESTRICTIONS THIS EVENING AT KSYR. CURRENTLY MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO STAY WEST OF KRME. A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 20 KNOTS FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS SHIFT
OVERNIGHT AND A FEW STRONGER SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY... A FEW ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OFF AND ON LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS AT KRME AND KSYR. OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR NYZ022.
DISCUSSION...JTC
AVIATION...MWG
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