427
FXUS61 KBGM 271805
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
105 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOW TOTALS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH, ESPECIALLY OVER NW ONONDAGA. IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASES REGARDING THE INLAND EXTENT OF THIS BAND, A
SHORT FUSED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NEPA AND
STEUBEN COUNTY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BORDERLINE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY WIND CHILLS EXPECTED FOR THE SAME AREAS TONIGHT.
2) LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED THRU MOST OF THE WEEK,
MOSTLY IMPACTING AREAS NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
2) AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS TO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD START TO THE DAY UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
WIND CHILLS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM ABOUT 5 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW
ZERO. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NE PA
AND STEUBEN COUNTY UNTIL 18Z THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIND CHILLS AS
LOW AS 10 TO 20 BELOW, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WHILE
WINDS ARE NOT TOO STRONG TO START THE DAY WITH WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT BUILDING IN, THEY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
15-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THOSE
LOWER WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND THROUGH LUNCHTIME.
WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AGAIN TONIGHT AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO EARLY THIS MORNING (-17 TO -18C VS. THE
-19 TO -20C THIS MORNING), WIND CHILLS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MAINLY RANGE FROM 0 TO 10 BELOW ZERO WITH LOCALIZED AREAS
REACHING 15 BELOW ZERO. THE LOWEST VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LARGELY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN
THESE VALUES BEING MORE WIDESPREAD, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY
NEED TO BE ISSUED AGAIN FOR NE PA AND STEUBEN COUNTY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN EARLY THIS MORNING, LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF I-81 WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO
WILL BE SHIFTING NORTH OUT OF ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA COUNTIES. THIS
WILL BE A SHORT REPRIEVE THOUGH AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO OCCUR EAST OF THE FINGER
LAKES REGION. AS THE PARENT LOW PASSES BY WELL TO THE NORTH, THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THE FLOW ONCE
AGAIN BECOMES WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH
ONEIDA, MADISON AND ONONDAGA COUNTIES AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK
TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW ORGANIZED THIS BAND WILL BE AND ALSO THE INLAND EXTEND OF
THE STEADIEST SNOW, WHICH LOOKS TO BE MAINLY OVER OSWEGO AND
NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES JUST OVER OUR BORDER, BUT SNOW AMOUNTS
HAVE TRENDED UP ACROSS NORTHERN ONONDAGA CO. IN PARTICULAR.
WHILE A GENERAL 2-5 INCHES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS LAKE EFFECT
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6-7 INCHES IN FAR NORTHWESTERN ONONDAGA CO. IF
EVERYTHING COMES TOGETHER RIGHT FOR A QUICK THUMP. IF THIS
TREND HOLDS, A SHORT FUSED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, REINFORCING NWERLY FLOW AND LEADING TO MORE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. AN ADDITIONAL UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO PIVOT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE #3
ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A VERY POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH THROUGH FROM THE NORTH AT THE END OF THE WEEK, SOMETIME
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY, DRAGGING -20C TO
-25C 850MB AIR INTO THE REGION. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM 0 TO 5 BELOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA (CLOSER TO 5 ABOVE
AROUND THE SYRACUSE METRO). AFTER HIGHS IN THE TEENS THURSDAY,
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT PLUMMET TO 0 TO 10 BELOW WITH WIND CHILLS
RANGING FROM 10 TO 25 BELOW ZERO. FRIDAY'S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS WITH LOWS AT NIGHT
DROPPING BACK BELOW ZERO.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR-MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH
VARIABILITY BETWEEN CATEGORIES AS TIME MARCHES ON. PERSISTENT IFR
CEILINGS ARE SHOWING A VERY SMALL PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE THROUGH
18Z WEDNESDAY. COLD ADVECTION WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS,
PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MORE ROBUST LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS MOVE
BACK INTO CNY THIS EVENING AFTER 00Z-03Z WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY OF
IFR VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER CELLS.
PRIMARILY LOOKING AT KSYR-KRME TO EXPERIENCE THESE MORE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS. SCATTERED FLURRIES AND NOMINAL MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT KITH-KBGM, BUT THIS IS A LOWER PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY... A FEW ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR OFF AND ON LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT KRME AND
KSYR. OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
SUNDAY...VFR WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. MONITORING TRENDS OF
POTENTIAL STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ018.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ022.
DISCUSSION...DK
AVIATION...JAB
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