818
FXUS61 KBGM 271842
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
142 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOW TOTALS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH, ESPECIALLY OVER NW ONONDAGA. IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASES REGARDING THE INLAND EXTENT OF THIS BAND, A
SHORT FUSED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE
IN NEPA/STEUBEN COUNTY.
2) A FEW INCHES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT, MAINLY LOCALIZED TO
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY WITH LIGHTER SNOW JUST TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. ADDITIONAL
3) AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS TO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. NOR'EASTER CURRENTLY
LOOKING TO IMPACT ONLY AREAS EAST OF OUR REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
YET ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC COLD INTO THE REGION. CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN TONIGHT. LOWS LOOK TO FALL TO
AROUND 0 AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND NEPA WHERE
CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP SOME. CLOUDS FURTHER NORTH SHOULD KEEP
THE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER. WITH SOME LIGHT WINDS, WIND
CHILLS HAVE THE POTENTIAL AGAIN TO DROP TO -10 TO 15F IN STEUBEN
COUNTY AND NEPA AGAIN. AS A RESULT, THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
HAS BEEN EXTENDED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MODELING HAS TRENDED TO A BIT MORE ORGANIZED WEST NORTHWEST
FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND INTO NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY ALONG
WITH CLIPPING NORTHWEST MADISON COUNTY AND WESTERN ONEIDA
COUNTY. THE MOST FAVORABLE TIMING LOOKS TO BE THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. WITH RATIOS STILL 15-20:1, FLUFFY SNOW IS STILL
EXPECTED WITH ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF QPF YIELDING 4 OR 5 INCHES
NORTH OF SYRACUSE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
WITH THAT IN MIND. SOME ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR.
KEY MESSAGE #3
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TREND EVEN SLIGHTLY COLDER THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. CURRENT WIND CHILL VALUES COULD GET AS LOW AS -15 TO
-25F EACH NIGHT WITH ONLY SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR HIGHS.
MORE COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS WE GET
CLOSER IN TIME. A NOR'EASTER IS STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR OR
OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. THE MAJORITY OF MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND EAST WITH THE GFS/GEFS
TRENDING WEST. THE PHASING IS OCCURRING MUCH LATER WITH THIS
STORM WAITING TILL REACHING THE SOUTHWEST COAST. MODELED HEIGHT
RISES DO NOT LOOK SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO TRACK THIS SYSTEM CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE REGION AT THIS TIME FOR A SNOW STORM.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR-MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH
VARIABILITY BETWEEN CATEGORIES AS TIME MARCHES ON. PERSISTENT IFR
CEILINGS ARE SHOWING A VERY SMALL PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE THROUGH
18Z WEDNESDAY. COLD ADVECTION WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS,
PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MORE ROBUST LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS MOVE
BACK INTO CNY THIS EVENING AFTER 00Z-03Z WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY OF
IFR VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER CELLS.
PRIMARILY LOOKING AT KSYR-KRME TO EXPERIENCE THESE MORE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS. SCATTERED FLURRIES AND NOMINAL MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT KITH-KBGM, BUT THIS IS A LOWER PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY... A FEW ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR OFF AND ON LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT KRME AND
KSYR. OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
SUNDAY...VFR WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. MONITORING TRENDS OF
POTENTIAL STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ018.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ022.
DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...JAB
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