479
FXUS61 KBGM 151745
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1245 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WERE ADDED FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COASTAL LOW GRAZES THE REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL
PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
2) MILDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK BEFORE
TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER NEXT WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH RAIN, SNOW, AND A WINTRY MIX ALL
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY BUT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY DURING THE DAYTIME. EARLY MORNING FOG/FREEZING FOG WILL CLEAR UP
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE POSSIBLE BEFORE
THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
A COASTAL LOW WILL GRAZE THE REGION TONIGHT AS IT DRIFTS OUT TO SEA.
THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND BEING ON THE COLDER
SIDE, LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS NEPA AND INTO THE CATSKILLS. MOST WILL SEE
LESS THAN AN INCH, THOUGH HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE POCONOS COULD SEE
1 TO 2 INCHES. AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTH, A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND BRING SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF CNY, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-81.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW, LOCALIZED POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE SYRACUSE AREA, THOUGH SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. FOR AREAS THAT SEE MAINLY SNOW, UP
TO A COUPLE OF TENTHS ARE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON MONDAY THROUGH ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL
DROP IN OVERNIGHT. NBM GUIDANCE WAS NOT SHOWING MUCH FOR THIS
SYSTEM, SO A BLEND OF NBM, CONSALL, AND MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE USED
TO INCREASE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. WITH MILD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED, PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY RAIN THOUGH IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND AREAS WHERE CONDITIONS STAY CLOSER TO FREEZING, SNOW
AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME, SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT, MAYBE A TENTH OR TWO. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT UNTREATED SURFACES COULD GET A LIGHT GLAZE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WEAK RIDGING WILL FAVOR TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER THROUGH
MIDWEEK. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WARMER AIR EXTENDS
NORTH AND IF SKIES CAN CLEAR FOR A BIT ON TUESDAY, SOME LOCATIONS
COULD SEE TEMPS CLOSER TO 50. TEMPERATURES THEN TREND COLDER INTO
THE WEEKEND FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK.
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK, THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS FRONT LIFTS
NORTH INTO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH, NOT
EXITING UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH MILDER CONDITIONS PRESENT,
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY RAIN, THOUGH A RAIN SNOW MIX OR JUST
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES COOL DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A COUPLE OF PASSING WEAK WAVES COULD KICK OFF SOME SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY. THEN NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK,
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD BUT A COLD FRONT IS QUICK TO FOLLOW AS THIS LOW MOVES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO CANADA BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
INITIALLY, PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN, ESPECIALLY ONCE THE
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT, RAIN WOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW. WITH ALL OF THESE
SYSTEMS, TEMPERATURES WILL PLAY A ROLE INTO WHAT PRECIPITATION TYPES
ARE OBSERVED. COLDER SOLUTIONS WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW WHEREAS WARMER
SOLUTIONS WOULD FAVOR MORE RAIN. THEN WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
FREEZING AT TIMES OR GOING FROM ABOVE TO BELOW FREEZING, A WINTRY
MIX WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BECAUSE THESE SYSTEMS ARE STILL SEVERAL
DAYS OUT, THIS FORECAST KEPT PRECIPITATION TYPES SIMPLE WITH RAIN,
SNOW, AND RAIN/SNOW MIX BUT FREEZING RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ANY
LINGERING MIST/HAZE SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ELM
THIS AFTERNOON.
A STORM SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BRING MVFR/FUEL ALT RESTRICTIONS TO ALL
TERMINALS STARTING AFTER 01Z. AVP HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS, WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT STEADY SNOW BETWEEN ABOUT 04-08Z
MONDAY HERE. THEREFORE AN IFR TEMPO WAS INTRODUCED AT AVP FOR
THIS POTENTIAL. ELSEWHERE, THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES AT TIMES, WITH MAINLY 5-6SM OR GREATER VISIBILITY
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATE. THE SNOW SHOWERS MOVE AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY. THE MVFR FUEL ALT CIGS
LINGER AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST OR VARIABLE, MAINLY UNDER 10
KTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT: LINGERING MVFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY, IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE MODERATE TO HIGH.
TUESDAY: LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. BECOMING VFR FOR PA AND NY SOUTHERN TIER TERMINALS BY
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE MODERATE.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AND IFR
POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH RAIN OR WINTRY MIX MOVING
THROUGH; ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE MODERATE.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR, WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS AROUND AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.
FRIDAY: RAIN LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. (COULD MIX
WITH SNOW NORTH, NEAR RME. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...JTC/MJM
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