712
FXUS61 KBGM 160611
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
111 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COASTAL LOW GRAZES THE REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL
PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
2) MILDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK BEFORE
TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER NEXT WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH RAIN, SNOW, AND A WINTRY MIX ALL
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT, BUT
WILL QUICKLY SHOOT EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA. THE FAR NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL GRAZE THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. IT'S POSSIBLE FOR A COATING TO A HALF INCH IN NE PA
AND INTO THE EASTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND POSSIBLY 1-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE POCONOS. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY MARGINAL AND THERE IS STILL A LITTLE
UNCERTAINTY HOW FOR NORTH THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AS WELL TONIGHT AND
THIS WAVE COULD KICK OFF SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
FOR PORTIONS OF CNY, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-81. ALSO, THERE
REMAINS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COULD BE A LACK OF ICE
CRYSTALS OVERNIGHT WITH SOUNDING PROFILES IN THE SATURATED LAYER
ONLY COMING IN AT -1C TO -7C. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME POCKETS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER CNY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW, AS THERE COULD BE A LITTLE SEEDER
FEEDER PROCESS THAT COULD INTRODUCE ICE CRYSTALS AND THEN ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. EITHER WAY,
ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A LIGHT GLAZE IF IT WERE TO OCCUR AND
LIKELY ONLY SEE ISSUES ON UNTREATED SURFACES.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON TOMORROW, BUT ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL
DROP IN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. NBM GUIDANCE WAS NOT
SHOWING MUCH FOR THIS SYSTEM, SO MADE SOME MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO
INCREASE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. WITH MILD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED, PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY RAIN, THOUGH IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS WHERE CONDITIONS STAY CLOSER TO
FREEZING, SNOW AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS
TIME, SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT, MAYBE A COATING TO A
HALF INCH. ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT AGAIN, UNTREATED
SURFACES COULD GET A LIGHT GLAZE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR MORE RAIN OVER A WINTRY MIX OR SNOW
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK RIDGING WILL FAVOR TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER THROUGH
MIDWEEK. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WARMER AIR EXTENDS
NORTH AND IF SKIES CAN CLEAR FOR A BIT ON TUESDAY, SOME LOCATIONS
COULD SEE TEMPS CLOSER TO 50. TEMPERATURES THEN TREND COLDER INTO
THE WEEKEND FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK.
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK, THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS FRONT LIFTS
NORTH INTO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH, NOT
EXITING UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH MILDER CONDITIONS PRESENT,
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY RAIN, THOUGH A RAIN SNOW MIX OR JUST
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES COOL DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A COUPLE OF PASSING WEAK WAVES COULD KICK OFF SOME SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY. THEN NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK,
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD BUT A COLD FRONT IS QUICK TO FOLLOW AS THIS LOW MOVES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO CANADA BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
INITIALLY, PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN, ESPECIALLY ONCE THE
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT, RAIN WOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW. WITH ALL OF THESE
SYSTEMS, TEMPERATURES WILL PLAY A ROLE INTO WHAT PRECIPITATION TYPES
ARE OBSERVED. COLDER SOLUTIONS WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW WHEREAS WARMER
SOLUTIONS WOULD FAVOR MORE RAIN. THEN WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
FREEZING AT TIMES OR GOING FROM ABOVE TO BELOW FREEZING, A WINTRY
MIX WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BECAUSE THESE SYSTEMS ARE STILL SEVERAL
DAYS OUT, THIS FORECAST KEPT PRECIPITATION TYPES SIMPLE WITH RAIN,
SNOW, AND RAIN/SNOW MIX BUT FREEZING RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SNOW CURRENTLY AT AVP SHOULD MOVE OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD LIFT TO FUEL ALT ONCE SNOW DISSIPATES. THERE
IS SOME SIGNALS FOR IFR FOG TO FILL IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SNOW
BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. PATCHY
FOG AND FUEL ALT CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE SKIES SCATTER AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN. FOG MAY DEVELOP
TONIGHT, WITH AT LEAST MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT AVP.
BGM AND ELM ARE CURRENTLY SEEING FUEL ALT CEILINGS WITH SIGNALS
FOR IFR LATER TONIGHT. WITH THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT BGM AND
LACK OF PRECIP TODAY, IFR WAS KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH FUEL
ALT CIGS LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE CLIMBING TO
MVFR. AT ELM, WITH CLOUDS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT, IFR FOG
SEEMS UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP AND USUALLY WITHOUT FOG DEVELOPING, IT
IS HARD FOR IFR CEILINGS TO FORM, ESPECIALLY WITHOUT PRECIP
FALLING TO DAY. ITH SHOULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS FILL IN OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, REMAINING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME IFR CIGS DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS.
SYR AND RME WILL BE CLOUDY ALL DAY WITH MVFR/FUEL ALT CIGS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT: LINGERING MVFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY, IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE MODERATE TO HIGH.
TUESDAY: LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. BECOMING VFR FOR PA AND NY SOUTHERN TIER TERMINALS BY
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE MODERATE.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AND IFR
POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH RAIN OR WINTRY MIX MOVING
THROUGH; ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE MODERATE.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR, WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS AROUND AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.
FRIDAY: RAIN LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. (COULD MIX
WITH SNOW NORTH, NEAR RME. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BTL/MPK
AVIATION...JTC
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