764
FXUS61 KBGM 160703
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
203 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED ALONG AND BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE MODIFIED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH MORE WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE NAM. WITH THIS CHANGE,
PRECIPITATION TYPES AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE ALSO MODIFIED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AFTER A QUIET DAY, A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
THE REGION TONIGHT. FOLLOWING THE SHOWERS, PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-MORNING TUESDAY.
2) MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. A SYSTEM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
3) TEMPERATURES THEN TREND COOLER THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK, ESPECIALLY DURING THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
EARLY THIS MORNING, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WYOMING VALLEY AND POCONOS. AS THIS SYSTEM
DRIFTS OUT TO SEA, SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END PRIOR TO SUNRISE. WITH
WHAT HAS FALLEN AND WHAT WILL STILL FALL, TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS RANGE
FROM LESS THAN AN INCH UP TO 2 INCHES. A WEAK WAVE TO THE NORTH IS
JUST CLIPPING ONEIDA COUNTY WITH SOME FLURRIES.
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE DAYTIME. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 30S AND 40S. OVERNIGHT, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP IN AND
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. FOR MOST, THIS WILL
BE RAIN. HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS EASTWARD AND TEMPERATURES
COOL, THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED AREAS OF A WINTRY MIX
AND/OR FREEZING RAIN. NO SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
BUT A LIGHT GLAZE ON UNTREATED SURFACES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. EVEN
WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE JUST RAIN, THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
BLACK ICE AS SURFACES TEMPERATURES FALL NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. WITH WARM RAIN PASSING OVER A COLD SNOWPACK, FOG IS
LIKELY TO FOLLOW AND NOT CLEAR UNTIL MIDDAY TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH MIDWEEK AS WEAK RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH TUESDAY AND
PART OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN, A LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
LIFT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH, SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND TUG HILL TO START. THEN AS
TEMPERATURES COOL OVERNIGHT, RAIN WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW IN
THESE AREAS. THERE MAY EVEN BE A LINE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN, THOUGH EXACT LOCATIONS WILL DEPEND
ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPERATURES. WITH THESE SET UPS,
THE NAM USUALLY HANDLES THEM WELL, SO THE NAM WAS BLENDED WITH NBM
FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. THIS CHANGE THEN IMPACTS THE
PRECIPITATION TYPES AND SNOWFALL EXPECTED. WHERE SNOW IS POSSIBLE, 1
TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE, THOUGH SOME OF THAT IS LIKELY TO MELT
DURING THE DAY WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN. OF COURSE, THERE DOES
REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THURSDAY IS TRENDING DRIER WITH THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE, THOUGH
A COUPLE OF MODELS HANG ONTO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL
STAY SOMEWHAT MILD THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, THOUGH THERE
WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT COOLING TREND. THE END OF THE WEEK IS A BIT
MORE UNCERTAIN. MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE MIDWEST THAT LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. AS IT DOES, A
COASTAL LOW FORMS AND POTENTIALLY ABSORBS THE INLAND SYSTEM. WARM
AIR WILL BRIEFLY SURGE NORTH BEFORE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FOLLOWING
THESE SYSTEMS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE
SYSTEMS BETWEEN GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY IN THE TIMING. QUICKER
SOLUTIONS LIKE THE GFS HAVE ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
WEEKEND WHILE SLOWER SOLUTIONS KEEP PRECIPITATION AROUND LONGER.
WITH A SURGE OF COLDER AIR OVER THE NORTHEAST, THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SNOW CURRENTLY AT AVP SHOULD MOVE OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD LIFT TO FUEL ALT ONCE SNOW DISSIPATES. THERE
IS SOME SIGNALS FOR IFR FOG TO FILL IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SNOW
BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. PATCHY
FOG AND FUEL ALT CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE SKIES SCATTER AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN. FOG MAY DEVELOP
TONIGHT, WITH AT LEAST MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT AVP.
BGM AND ELM ARE CURRENTLY SEEING FUEL ALT CEILINGS WITH SIGNALS
FOR IFR LATER TONIGHT. WITH THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT BGM AND
LACK OF PRECIP TODAY, IFR WAS KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH FUEL
ALT CIGS LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE CLIMBING TO
MVFR. AT ELM, WITH CLOUDS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT, IFR FOG
SEEMS UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP AND USUALLY WITHOUT FOG DEVELOPING, IT
IS HARD FOR IFR CEILINGS TO FORM, ESPECIALLY WITHOUT PRECIP
FALLING TO DAY. ITH SHOULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS FILL IN OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, REMAINING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME IFR CIGS DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS.
SYR AND RME WILL BE CLOUDY ALL DAY WITH MVFR/FUEL ALT CIGS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT: LINGERING MVFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY, IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE MODERATE TO HIGH.
TUESDAY: LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. BECOMING VFR FOR PA AND NY SOUTHERN TIER TERMINALS BY
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE MODERATE.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AND IFR
POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH RAIN OR WINTRY MIX MOVING
THROUGH; ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE MODERATE.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR, WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS AROUND AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.
FRIDAY: RAIN LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. (COULD MIX
WITH SNOW NORTH, NEAR RME. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...JTC
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