400
FXUS61 KBGM 161150
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
650 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED ALONG AND BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE MODIFIED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH MORE WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE NAM. WITH THIS CHANGE,
PRECIPITATION TYPES AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE ALSO MODIFIED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AFTER A QUIET DAY, A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
THE REGION TONIGHT. FOLLOWING THE SHOWERS, PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-MORNING TUESDAY.
2) MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. A SYSTEM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
3) TEMPERATURES THEN TREND COOLER THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK, ESPECIALLY DURING THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
EARLY THIS MORNING, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WYOMING VALLEY AND POCONOS. AS THIS SYSTEM
DRIFTS OUT TO SEA, SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END PRIOR TO SUNRISE. WITH
WHAT HAS FALLEN AND WHAT WILL STILL FALL, TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS RANGE
FROM LESS THAN AN INCH UP TO 2 INCHES. A WEAK WAVE TO THE NORTH IS
JUST CLIPPING ONEIDA COUNTY WITH SOME FLURRIES.
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE DAYTIME. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 30S AND 40S. OVERNIGHT, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP IN AND
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. FOR MOST, THIS WILL
BE RAIN. HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS EASTWARD AND TEMPERATURES
COOL, THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED AREAS OF A WINTRY MIX
AND/OR FREEZING RAIN. NO SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
BUT A LIGHT GLAZE ON UNTREATED SURFACES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. EVEN
WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE JUST RAIN, THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
BLACK ICE AS SURFACES TEMPERATURES FALL NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. WITH WARM RAIN PASSING OVER A COLD SNOWPACK, FOG IS
LIKELY TO FOLLOW AND NOT CLEAR UNTIL MIDDAY TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH MIDWEEK AS WEAK RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH TUESDAY AND
PART OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN, A LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
LIFT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH, SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND TUG HILL TO START. THEN AS
TEMPERATURES COOL OVERNIGHT, RAIN WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW IN
THESE AREAS. THERE MAY EVEN BE A LINE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN, THOUGH EXACT LOCATIONS WILL DEPEND
ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPERATURES. WITH THESE SET UPS,
THE NAM USUALLY HANDLES THEM WELL, SO THE NAM WAS BLENDED WITH NBM
FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. THIS CHANGE THEN IMPACTS THE
PRECIPITATION TYPES AND SNOWFALL EXPECTED. WHERE SNOW IS POSSIBLE, 1
TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE, THOUGH SOME OF THAT IS LIKELY TO MELT
DURING THE DAY WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN. OF COURSE, THERE DOES
REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THURSDAY IS TRENDING DRIER WITH THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE, THOUGH
A COUPLE OF MODELS HANG ONTO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL
STAY SOMEWHAT MILD THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, THOUGH THERE
WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT COOLING TREND. THE END OF THE WEEK IS A BIT
MORE UNCERTAIN. MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE MIDWEST THAT LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. AS IT DOES, A
COASTAL LOW FORMS AND POTENTIALLY ABSORBS THE INLAND SYSTEM. WARM
AIR WILL BRIEFLY SURGE NORTH BEFORE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FOLLOWING
THESE SYSTEMS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE
SYSTEMS BETWEEN GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY IN THE TIMING. QUICKER
SOLUTIONS LIKE THE GFS HAVE ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
WEEKEND WHILE SLOWER SOLUTIONS KEEP PRECIPITATION AROUND LONGER.
WITH A SURGE OF COLDER AIR OVER THE NORTHEAST, THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MVFR/FUEL ALT CLOUD DECKS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME
LOW CHANCES FOR IFR AT ITH AND BGM BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH PATCHY FOG FILLING IN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ITH/BGM/RME SHOULD SEE IFR RESTRICTIONS FROM THE
FOG. AVP/ELM/SYR HAVE SIGNALS FOR IFR BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF SET.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. BECOMING VFR FOR PA AND NY SOUTHERN TIER TERMINALS BY
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE MODERATE.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AND IFR
POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH RAIN MOVING THROUGH;
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE MODERATE.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR, WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS AROUND AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.
FRIDAY: RAIN LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. (COULD MIX
WITH SNOW NORTH, NEAR RME. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...JTC
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