614
FXUS61 KBGM 170552
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1252 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. A SHORTER-
FUSED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT OR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED THIS EVENING IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
AREA TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY. SOME SPOTTY FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
CATSKILLS AND POCONOS.
2) MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK. A SYSTEM
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
3) TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK, MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT AND BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. WHILE MOST AREAS
WILL SEE RAIN (IF ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL), THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS. THE CHANCE FOR THIS
REMAINS ON THE LOWER SIDE. EVEN IF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WERE TO
MATERIALIZE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL, SO IMPACTS WILL BE
LIMITED. OTHERWISE, WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE
SURFACE, SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH MIDWEEK AS WEAK RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH TUESDAY AND
PART OF TUESDAY NIGHT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST WILL LIFT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE EXACT POSITIONING OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT
IT WILL BISECT SOMEWHERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA. NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A WINTRY MIX OR
SNOW TO BE THE PRIMARY FORM OF PRECIPITATION, BUT SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY, PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE MAINLY RAIN. ANOTHER
FACTOR IN PLACE IS THE FACT THAT THE STEADY PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN DYNAMIC COOLING AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WERE
LOWERED FROM WHAT THE NBM HAS.
FINALLY, ANOTHER POTENTIAL HAZARD ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE RAIN AND SNOWMELT TO RESULT IN
SOME ICE JAMS TO FORM ON SOME AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. THAT
BEING SAID, THIS THREAT REMAINS ON THE LOWER SIDE AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD (HIGHS
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S). THE END OF THE WEEK IS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST THAT LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY. AS IT DOES, A COASTAL LOW FORMS AND POTENTIALLY
ABSORBS THE INLAND SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH
SATURDAY, BUT COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND LIKELY PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO MVFR
AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AT SOME TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 7Z AND 10Z THAT WILL
HELP LOWER CIGS TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS. WITH DEEPER SNOW COVER
IN CNY AND A MORE HUMID AIRMASS MOVING IN, SYR AND RME HAVE A
GOOD CHANCE AT SOME LOW FOG OR MIST FORMING RESULTING IN IFR
VIS. LOWER CHANCES OF IFR VIS EXIST AT BGM AND ITH GIVEN SNOW
COVER THERE AS WELL BUT WINDS MAY STAY ELEVATED ENOUGH TO
PREVENT ANY FOG OR MIST FROM FORMING. ELM AND AVP DO NOT HAVE AS
DEEP OF SNOW SO THEY WILL MAINLY SEE MVFR CIGS.
SOME CIGS TRY TO SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY AT ELM BUT
POTENTIALLY BGM, ITH, AND AVP AS WELL. SYR AND RME LOOK TO
REMAIN FIRMLY IN THE STRATUS THROUGH 6Z TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MVFR RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AND IFR POSSIBLE FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA WITH RAIN MOVING THROUGH; ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE MODERATE.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR, WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS AROUND AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.
FRIDAY...RAIN LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. COULD MIX
WITH SNOW NORTH, NEAR RME. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.
SATURDAY...LINGERING SNOW TO THE NORTH AND RAIN SOUTH WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON RESTRICTIONS
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE AND INTENSITY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJG/BTL
AVIATION...AJG
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