510
FXUS61 KBGM 170608
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
108 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST UPDATE.
WE'RE CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE POSITIONING OF THE WARM FRONT
THAT WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH IS FURTHER DISCUSSED BELOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SYSTEM TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
2) ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST WILL LIFT A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE EXACT POSITIONING OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT IT WILL
BISECT SOMEWHERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA. SINCE GUIDANCE REMAINS
UNCERTAIN, RESULTING IN OUR LOW CONFIDENCE, MINIMAL CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST WERE MADE. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A WINTRY MIX OR SNOW TO BE THE PRIMARY
FORM OF PRECIPITATION, BUT SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, PRECIPITATION
WOULD LIKELY BE MAINLY RAIN. HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IF
CONDITIONS TREND COOLER, LEADING TO MORE WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL
FOR ICE ACCUMULATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD IN THE
HIGH 30S TO LOW 40S. THE END OF THE WEEK IS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST THAT LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH
SATURDAY, BUT COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND LIKELY PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO MVFR
AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AT SOME TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 7Z AND 10Z THAT WILL
HELP LOWER CIGS TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS. WITH DEEPER SNOW COVER
IN CNY AND A MORE HUMID AIRMASS MOVING IN, SYR AND RME HAVE A
GOOD CHANCE AT SOME LOW FOG OR MIST FORMING RESULTING IN IFR
VIS. LOWER CHANCES OF IFR VIS EXIST AT BGM AND ITH GIVEN SNOW
COVER THERE AS WELL BUT WINDS MAY STAY ELEVATED ENOUGH TO
PREVENT ANY FOG OR MIST FROM FORMING. ELM AND AVP DO NOT HAVE AS
DEEP OF SNOW SO THEY WILL MAINLY SEE MVFR CIGS.
SOME CIGS TRY TO SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY AT ELM BUT
POTENTIALLY BGM, ITH, AND AVP AS WELL. SYR AND RME LOOK TO
REMAIN FIRMLY IN THE STRATUS THROUGH 6Z TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MVFR RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AND IFR POSSIBLE FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA WITH RAIN MOVING THROUGH; ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE MODERATE.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR, WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS AROUND AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.
FRIDAY...RAIN LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. COULD MIX
WITH SNOW NORTH, NEAR RME. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.
SATURDAY...LINGERING SNOW TO THE NORTH AND RAIN SOUTH WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON RESTRICTIONS
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE AND INTENSITY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KL
AVIATION...AJG
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