811
FXUS61 KBGM 171137
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
637 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST UPDATE.
WE'RE CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE POSITIONING OF THE WARM FRONT
THAT WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH IS FURTHER DISCUSSED BELOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SYSTEM TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
2) ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST WILL LIFT A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE EXACT POSITIONING OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT IT WILL
BISECT SOMEWHERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA. SINCE GUIDANCE REMAINS
UNCERTAIN, RESULTING IN OUR LOW CONFIDENCE, MINIMAL CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST WERE MADE. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A WINTRY MIX OR SNOW TO BE THE PRIMARY
FORM OF PRECIPITATION, BUT SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, PRECIPITATION
WOULD LIKELY BE MAINLY RAIN. HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IF
CONDITIONS TREND COOLER, LEADING TO MORE WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL
FOR ICE ACCUMULATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD IN THE
HIGH 30S TO LOW 40S. THE END OF THE WEEK IS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST THAT LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH
SATURDAY, BUT COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND LIKELY PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WIDESPREAD IFR AND MVFR HAS DEVELOPED AS WARM AIR MOVES OVER THE
SNOW COVER. FOG LOOKS TO LAST MUCH OF THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE AFTERNOON AT SYR AND RME WITH ONLY MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT
BY 0Z TONIGHT. ITH AND BGM DONT HAVE THE FOG OR MIST BUT THE LOW
CIGS LOOK TO STICK AROUND WITH CIGS SCATTERING OUT AT ELM AND
AVP LATER TODAY BRIEFLY. TONIGHT, STRATUS OVERSPREADS THE REGION
WITH MVFR AND IFR CIGS, WITH FOG REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AT SYR
AND RME.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MVFR RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AND IFR POSSIBLE FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA WITH RAIN MOVING THROUGH; ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE MODERATE.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR, WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS AROUND AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.
FRIDAY...RAIN LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. COULD MIX
WITH SNOW NORTH, NEAR RME. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.
SATURDAY...LINGERING SNOW TO THE NORTH AND RAIN SOUTH WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON RESTRICTIONS
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE AND INTENSITY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KL
AVIATION...AJG
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