161
FXUS61 KBGM 171745
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1245 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST UPDATE.
WE'RE CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE POSITIONING OF THE WARM FRONT
THAT WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH IS FURTHER DISCUSSED BELOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SYSTEM TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
2) ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST WILL LIFT A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE EXACT POSITIONING OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT IT WILL
BISECT SOMEWHERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA. SINCE GUIDANCE REMAINS
UNCERTAIN, RESULTING IN OUR LOW CONFIDENCE, MINIMAL CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST WERE MADE. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A WINTRY MIX OR SNOW TO BE THE PRIMARY
FORM OF PRECIPITATION, BUT SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, PRECIPITATION
WOULD LIKELY BE MAINLY RAIN. HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IF
CONDITIONS TREND COOLER, LEADING TO MORE WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL
FOR ICE ACCUMULATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD IN THE
HIGH 30S TO LOW 40S. THE END OF THE WEEK IS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST THAT LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH
SATURDAY, BUT COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND LIKELY PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY THROUGH THE NEXT
12 HOURS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
MOSTLY WIDESPREAD IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SEVERAL HOURS OF VFR AT AVP AND ELM DUE TO A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF CLEARING THAT HAS DEVELOPED. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG OVERSPREADS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MVFR AND IFR
CIGS AND FOG REDEVELOPING BEFORE THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
OCCURS BETWEEN 12-15Z IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
INITIALLY WED MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...IFR AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST TERMINALS AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON AND WED NIGHT. CONFIDENCE MODERATE TO HIGH.
THURSDAY...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS THU MORNING DUE TO LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG, OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR, WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.
FRIDAY...RAIN LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. COULD MIX
WITH SNOW NORTH, NEAR RME. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.
SATURDAY...LINGERING SNOW TO THE NORTH AND RAIN SOUTH WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON RESTRICTIONS
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE AND INTENSITY.
SUNDAY...POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW COULD IMPACT CENTRAL NY AND NE PA
SUNDAY WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR NYZ009-018-036-037-044>046-057.
DISCUSSION...KL
AVIATION...AJG/BJT
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